Imagine that you bought $BTC in October 2022 with the fear index at 6/100. Everyone said that crypto was dead. Today that BTC is worth 10 times more. TODAY the PCE — the Fed's favorite inflation indicator — is released at 8:30 AM ET. The same scenario of 'everyone is scared' is repeating. And history says that this fear is usually the best opportunity.
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⚡ FLASH: PCE data released TODAY 8:30 AM ET — the most important catalyst of the week for crypto and global markets.
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🌡️ THERMOMETER TODAY:
Sentiment: 😨 Fear & Greed 14/100 — Extreme Fear
24h Trend: 📊 Lateral $69,438-$71,202
Catalyst: 📊 PCE TODAY + ceasefire talks Iran
Conviction: 🎯 7/10 — I expect a bounce if PCE is cold
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💣 BOMBSHELL DATA:
Long-term holders accumulated 85,000 BTC since the low on March 10 according to Glassnode. Only 2.3 million BTC remain on exchanges — the lowest level since 2018. Less BTC to sell on exchanges than at any time in the last 8 years. This structural scarcity is not reflected in today's price. But it always ends up showing.
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🔍 TODAY:
📊 BTC at ~$70,200 — lateral between $69,438 and $71,202 according to Fortune and Yahoo Finance TODAY.
📊 February PCE is published TODAY at 8:30 AM ET — if it comes in under 2.8% → Fed cut narrative returns → crypto bullish. If it exceeds 3% → additional pressure.
🕊️ Active U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks — Trump has a 5-day pause on attacks expiring ~March 28. Diplomatic window open.
📊 Colombia is the 4th country in the world in crypto adoption per capita — our Latin community is already here. The global market will also arrive.
🏦 Strategy: 762,000+ BTC accumulated — $44B plan to buy more. The world's largest buyer doesn't stop.
📊 VS LAST WEEK:
BTC: $70,722 → $70,200 (-0.74%) 📉 practically flat
Long-term holders: +85,000 BTC accumulated since March 10 ✅
Exchanges: 2.3M BTC — minimum since 2018 ✅
🎯 KEY Levels:
🔴 Support: $69,000 — $67,500
🟡 Resistance: $71,200 — $72,800
🟢 If it surpasses $72,800: $74,000 → $76,000 → $80,000
⚠️ If it drops below $67,500: $63,000 → $60,000
🎯 SETUP TO WATCH — TODAY:
PCE under 2.8% + active ceasefire = BTC may close March above $72,000. PCE over 3% + collapse of negotiations = return to $67,500. The range between those two scenarios is the largest of the week.
📌 IN SUMMARY:
1️⃣ PCE TODAY 8:30 AM ET — the data that defines the close of March
2️⃣ 2.3M BTC on exchanges — 8-year low, structural support
3️⃣ Active ceasefire talks — diplomatic window until the 28th
📰 TOMORROW'S HEADLINE:
“BTC surpasses $73,000 after cold PCE and progress in negotiations with Iran” — or — “BTC drops to $67,500 if PCE surprises to the upside.” The market writes one of these two tomorrow.
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Does BTC close March above $72,000 if PCE is cold TODAY — YES or NO? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. DYOR.
