The cryptocurrency market is indeed quite sluggish now, overall in a phase of consolidation with even some characteristics of a bear market. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering around $70,000 (recently fluctuating in the $70,000-$71,500 range), with a total market capitalization of about $2.4-$2.5 trillion, and the Fear & Greed index has been in Extreme Fear or low levels (around 14-26) for a long time. Ethereum (ETH) is around $2,100-$2,200, altcoins are weaker, and trading volume and liquidity have significantly shrunk, down quite a bit from their peak.
Macro-wise, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies (interest rates maintained at high levels, dot plot indicating possible zero or few rate cuts in 2026), geopolitical tensions (such as in the Middle East), and institutional ETF fund flows (recently facing outflow pressure), risk assets are generally under pressure. The core reasons for poor liquidity include: deleveraging, institutional caution, retail investors waiting on the sidelines, funds shifting to gold/U.S. stocks and other assets, coupled with the lack of new narratives for altcoins, resulting in a natural decline in trading volume.
From community discussions and market observations, everyone’s situation seems quite real, divided into several categories:
1. Playing dead/Watching/Going flat: This is mainstream. Activity in many groups has significantly declined, with less than 10-20% actually discussing market conditions and placing orders. Retail investors find it uninteresting, watching prices decline daily without a clear end, leading them to trade less and watch less to avoid emotional breakdowns. Some directly say that during a bear market, everyone is playing dead. Those with larger amounts are turning to A-shares, U.S. stocks, gold, and oil, or simply converting their money into stablecoins for investment (USDT/USDC annualized returns are relatively stable).
2. DCA/Hoarding coins/Waiting for a rebound: Smart money (including some institutions and seasoned retail investors) is slowly accumulating at low levels, especially BTC. The bear market is seen as a treasure digging or accumulation period, with some focusing on researching RWA, AI-related narratives, or infrastructure projects, preparing to benefit during the bull market. There are also those engaging in staking and DeFi investments, seeking stable returns to avoid asset depreciation.
3. Contracts/Short-term trading: For those still actively trading, many have switched to contracts, hoping to profit from fluctuations. However, with poor liquidity and high slippage, it’s easy to get liquidated, making it riskier. Some complain that liquidity in the crypto world is too poor to play.
4. Grab airdrops/Research new projects/Drive traffic: Some people (especially young ones or full-time players) are still testing networks, hunting for airdrops, and exploring new ecosystems, hoping to find the next opportunity. However, overall project quality varies, airdrops are becoming increasingly shameless, and the entry barriers and returns are disproportionate, even directly transitioning to high-traffic content like memes or jokes for a paycheck from Musk.
5. Reflection/Turn/Withdraw: Many old players lament that the bonuses are gone and new retail investors find it hard to enter. Platforms are starting to push U.S. stocks and precious metals contracts for transformation. Some institutions are withdrawing or hedging, while retail investors feel that the outside world is rising, looking at the crypto world with envy. Some are reflecting deeply: why didn’t we diversify earlier? Now it's awkward on both sides.
In summary, we are currently in a period of low trading volume, low sentiment, and high uncertainty. Many people choose to hunker down: preserving capital, earning interest, learning, and waiting for catalysts (such as a shift by the Federal Reserve, clearer regulations like the Clarity Act, or new narrative explosions). The bear market is a phase for cleaning up leverage and eliminating weak projects, but it is also a window for accumulating genuinely valuable projects or long-term holders, though it is indeed difficult, with the emotional weight feeling like a sword hanging over one’s head.
If you don’t have much capital, it’s advisable not to go all in with leverage. Stabilize your principal first (stablecoin investments are an option), study the fundamentals more, and chase trends less.
Market trends will always rotate, but in the short term, it may still remain sideways for a while.
DYOR, be aware of the risks.