Can gold still be seen as a bull? In fact, regardless of geopolitical factors or technical aspects, it is leaning towards a strong bearish trend.
Gold, the US dollar, and oil are interconnected; right now, the focus of the Americans is on oil, not gold. Last year, the attention was on gold, so every drop was an opportunity to get on board, and each time it refreshed historical highs. This year, it has become quite evident: the first drop was from 5600, the second from 5400, indicating that every time there is a rebound after a decline, it cannot refresh historical highs, and the lows are moving downwards.
The Fed's interest rate cuts or geopolitical factors no longer impact the gold price market; it is fundamentally different from last year. The more wars there are, the more it falls. Therefore, the factors that support gold prices are gone. Of course, many people talk about tapering and inflation, but that is one-sided; even if many countries increase their reserves, it is useless. One can refer back to previous instances where every rise was triggered by geopolitical turmoil and Fed interest rate cuts, as well as tariffs.
Thus, the market has already shown polarization, and in the future, there will be a significant group of buyers. The market no longer accepts naive entries by novices and will not treat you kindly. You have to rely on yourselves to reclaim what you want. After this rebound ends, gold prices will continue to decline until 2026. If you don’t believe it, just wait and see. Some people say gold has a very high value; do you think it’s high? I don’t think so. Think about it: when you bought a house, it multiplied several times within a few years—what about gold? Even if it went up from 2200, in two years, the corresponding increase is only around 2000 points now. Is that high? The world is changing; don’t view the financial market with a short-sighted perspective. If there’s a chance to go up, make sure to take profits! No matter how many people are optimistic about it, I will go against the tide; I am not optimistic about gold anymore. $XAU
