Notice the pattern?

Historical $BTC Bear Market Drops:
• 2011: ~93% decline.
• 2013-2015: ~85% decline.
• 2017-2018: ~84% decline.
• 2021-2022: ~77% decline.
• 2025-2026: ~53% decline so far, with Feb 2026 low at $60k.

One idea is that because of the stunted bull market, it may result in a stunted bear market (a lesser drop).

The thing is-- a "regular" bear market already encompasses diminishing returns (for example, a 70% drop from the highs this time would be a reduction in line with previous cycles).

A 70% drop from $126k would be $38k.

I think permabulls are hoping for even less of a drop than 70%. Although not impossible, I think this is unlikely. Here's why:

• If BTC double-bottomed at $60k it would only be a 53% drop-- quite outside the range of normal behavior. (77% -> 53% would be a 24% decrease from cycle to cycle, where all prior cycles were 1-8% decreases).
• If BTC bottomed at $50k it would only be a 60% drop. This would still be a large step-change reduction in volatility. (77% -> 60% would be a 17% decrease from cycle to cycle, where all prior cycles were 1-8% decreases).

I'm not saying these latter two examples are impossible, but should they be one's expectation? Following patterns, the answer is no. It should be treated as a pleasant surprise, rather than an expected result, imo.