Keep an eye on this 1-hour chart, I will break down the information for you. I am not a deity, but my analysis is never ambiguous.
1. Technical analysis: This is not a top, it's a continuation of the uptrend!
Price and Bollinger Bands: The price has pulled back from a high of 71989 and is currently entangled near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands (71145). The key is that the Bollinger Bands are still opening upwards, and the lower track (70550) provides strong support. This is not a breakdown; rather, it is typical of a narrowing bandwidth and pullback confirmation during an uptrend.
The 'false dead cross' of MACD: Although the DIF crosses below the DEA to form a dead cross, the MACD histogram is negative (-133.9), but both the fast and slow lines (DIF: 53.2, DEA: 120.2) are above the zero axis at a high level. This is more like a brief exhaustion and recovery of bullish momentum, rather than a signal of trend reversal. Pay attention to whether a golden cross can form on the zero axis in the next hour.
2. On-chain data evidence: The whales haven't run away; what are you afraid of?
Exchange reserves: Data shows that the net withdrawal of BTC from mainstream exchanges has continued over the past 24 hours, indicating that chips are flowing from exchanges to steadfast holders, and selling pressure has not sharply increased.
Large holder address activity: On-chain monitoring has detected several 'whale' addresses continuously increasing their holdings in the 67500-70000 range; smart money is quietly accumulating during the pullback.
Long-term holders (LTH) belief: HODLer holdings remain stable, with no large-scale panic transfers occurring. Supply remains tight.
3. Latest news resonance: The east wind has arrived.
Macroeconomic perspective: The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are becoming increasingly clear, and the expectation of global liquidity shifting to an easing stance is long-term fuel for the crypto market.
Bitcoin spot ETF: Funds have been continuously flowing in for several days; once the 'buying machine' of the traditional world is activated, it won't stop easily. Each pullback is a great opportunity for institutions to accumulate positions.
Industry narrative: The halving effect has been partially priced in, but the cyclical patterns and fundamental logic of supply and demand remain intact. Market sentiment is not overheated and is far from a crazy phase.
My core viewpoints and strategies:
This round of hourly pullback has a target range at the solid zone of the Bollinger Band's lower boundary, between 70500-70000. Here lies a confluence of prior support platforms, cost zones for large on-chain holders, and key technical levels. I view this as an excellent second chance for bulls to re-enter.
In terms of operations: I have placed some positions in this area to increase my holdings. The stop loss is set below 69500 (effectively breaking the previous low). The short-term target is first to look at the previous high of 71900; once it breaks out with volume, it will open the path to 75000+.
The market is always moving in fluctuations; only by understanding its essence can wealth be held. My analysis is based on data and logic, and the rest is up to the market to verify. Remain firmly bullish, and treat pullbacks as opportunities!
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