Hormuz risk is starting to hit the real economy.

Because of the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, Europe is already warning about the risk of energy shortages and another spike in prices if the war does not end soon. At the current pace, New Zealand could run out of fuel in about three weeks, while more than 500 gas stations in Australia are already out of gasoline. If oil flows and logistics do not stabilize, the global economy could start to crack by May.

Trump is expected to visit China in mid-May, which suggests the war in Iran could drag through all of April. Markets turned red again today, and Brent is back at $100. As noted earlier, if there is no progress in negotiations, pessimism is likely to return to markets by the end of the week.