Dear friends in the crypto circle, today let's talk about something serious. The White House just made a statement, and the spokesperson clearly said that the U.S. actions against Iran are ongoing. But interestingly, they also emphasized that the Supreme Leader still keeps the door open for diplomatic negotiations, believing that peace deserves a chance. However, on the other side, Iran's military actions have not stopped, and their targets are very clear.
This situation is very similar to the tug-of-war feeling we have when watching the market—long and short battles, with information jumping back and forth. My view is very direct: this kind of 'literary attack and military intimidation' between major powers has never been a single-dimensional issue. It will definitely spill over, with traditional major assets being the first to be impacted before it reaches us.
You can see the reaction of oil prices (#OilPricesDrop). When geopolitical tensions rise, oil prices typically should increase, but instead, they have fallen. This indicates that the market has already priced in the expectations of "not escalating" or "controlled conflict." This difference in expectation is an opportunity.
Regarding the crypto market, my view is that short-term emotional fluctuations outweigh the substantial impact. Meme coins like TRUMP and MELANIA may ride the wave of trending topics for a while, but they are purely emotional chips that come quickly and leave just as fast; if you have a weak heart, don't touch them. What is truly worth paying attention to are assets like $ZEC, which have a prototype of safe-haven properties. If the situation really slips into unpredictable territory, the market's demand for anonymity and anti-censorship will be passively enhanced. Of course, this is just logical reasoning, not investment advice.
Now various topic tags (#USIsraelIranWar #TrumpSaysIranWarHasBeenWon #US-IranTalks) are everywhere, and the information is very mixed. My advice is, don't be led by clickbait headlines. Focus on two points: first, the subtle fluctuations of the petrodollar system, and second, changes in global risk appetite. These two points are the deep logic affecting whether funds flow into the crypto market.
In short, as an old investor, I have experienced too many "news markets." The core message is: when others panic or are enthusiastic due to news, you need to see the underlying asset flow logic. Stay calm, manage your positions well, and that is better than anything else. The market always has opportunities, but the premise is that you can survive until the next cycle.
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