Just yesterday, a magical drama unfolded in the global financial markets. Trump suddenly announced on social media a five-day pause on military strikes against Iranian energy facilities, also stating that talks with Iran were 'going very smoothly.' This statement sent the market into a frenzy—U.S. stock futures soared, and oil prices plummeted.
But what truly sent chills down my spine was the timeline.
Just five minutes before Trump tweeted, someone precisely went long on $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures while simultaneously selling $192 million in oil futures. The scale of these orders was four to six times that of other trades in the market at the time.
Five minutes.
Not five hours, not five days, but precisely five minutes.
You tell me this is a coincidence? I believe you like a ghost.
Do ordinary people dare to bet $1.5 billion based on intuition? This is not a casino playing slot machines; this is dancing on the edge of a knife with real money. The only explanation is that someone knew something in advance.
This reminds me of the infamous 'TACO trade' on Wall Street - Trump Always Chickens Out, which translates to 'Trump always backs down at the last minute.' This play is no secret on Wall Street: Trump throws out harsh words to create panic, and the market crashes; when he backs down, those who laid the groundwork in advance can make a fortune.
But this time is different. This time it involves war, geopolitics, and significant matters that could change the global landscape. And someone, just minutes before the news was announced, completed their layout precisely.
As an old hand in the crypto world, I have mixed feelings seeing this scene.
In the traditional financial world, this game of 'information asymmetry' is played every day. Those close to the centers of power can always sense the direction in advance and complete their layout before ordinary people can react. By the time the news is public, they have already profited and exited, leaving retail investors standing guard at high positions.
But what about the blockchain world? At least theoretically, the code is open, and transactions are transparent. Although there are insider information and market manipulation, at least every transaction is recorded on the chain, and anyone can trace it back. In DeFi, the rules of smart contracts are set in stone, and no one can change them arbitrarily.
Of course, I am not saying the crypto world is perfect. We have our own problems - manipulation, fraud, project teams running away; these issues are not few. But at least, we are building a more transparent and fair financial system.
Back to this incident. Those who completed transactions five minutes before Trump's tweet made money that could be more than what ordinary people earn in several lifetimes. And these profits will ultimately be transferred to every ordinary person in the form of inflation, rising oil prices, and tax burdens.
What’s most ironic? If an ordinary retail investor trades based on insider information, the SEC would have come knocking long ago, with fines and jail time. But this time? It’s likely 'under investigation' again, and then it will be forgotten, drowned out by the next headline.
Is this system really fair?
In my view, the traditional financial system has rotted to the core. The collusion of power and capital, along with information asymmetry, keeps ordinary people in a perpetual disadvantage. Meanwhile, blockchain and cryptocurrencies at least give us a possibility to break this monopoly.
I am not advocating for anarchism, nor am I saying that encryption can solve all problems. But at least it provides a choice - a more transparent, more decentralized, and fairer choice.
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: In this era where information equals power, whoever holds the information holds the wealth. And blockchain technology, at least theoretically, makes the distribution of information more even and makes the concentration of power more difficult.
Of course, the road is still long, and there are many pitfalls. But at least, we see the direction.
As for those who completed transactions five minutes before Trump's tweet? I wish them a good night's sleep. After all, holding money stained with the sweat and blood of ordinary people, having nightmares at night is only fitting.
This world needs change, and change often begins from the most unfair places.
That's all for today, see you in the comments section.
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