$LUNC again found itself in a familiar and dangerous zone. The price touches the level 0.00003726 for the third time in recent days, and on the 4-hour chart, we see a classic picture: RSI(6) dropped to 19.9, indicating serious oversold conditions. But the more often the market tests the same level, the thinner the ice under the feet of buyers becomes.
On the hourly timeframe, all three moving averages — EMA 7 (0.00003762), EMA 25 (0.00003808), and EMA 99 (0.00003853) — have turned down and are now acting as dynamic resistance. The price is literally pressed to the floor, and each subsequent bounce from this level becomes weaker than the previous one.
The daily chart adds alarming notes: the long-term EMA 99 is at 0.00003997, and the price has been unable to stay above this mark for several weeks. Globally, LUNC remains in a descending channel since February, and the current stop is more of a pause than a reversal.
The scenario considers an attempt to bounce from the support level:
· Entry (long): 0.00003725 – 0.00003735 (from the current zone, provided that the level holds).
· Targets: TP1 — 0.00003765 (return to EMA 7), TP2 — 0.00003810 (test EMA 25 and a dense group of averages).
· Stop: 0.00003710 (level below the established minimum; its breakout will lead the price to the next support 0.0000365).
The third touch of one level is a moment of truth. If buyers cannot organize a full-fledged bounce now, the support level risks turning into a ceiling, and the next movement will most likely be downwards. Oversold on the bulls' side, but time is working against them.
What do you think, will the level 0.000037 withstand the fourth touch, or will we see the long-awaited breakout with acceleration downwards?