Good morning, everyone.
Today's divination for the Taoist priest: the Xian hexagram changes to the Sun hexagram. Xian means perception; when yin and yang resonate, all things come to life; Sun means reduction; when there is no connection between upper and lower, the vital energy is exhausted. The chaos in today's market stems from the back-and-forth of news - you say negotiations are ongoing, he says they are not; you say there is a ceasefire, he says they are attacking you. Sentient beings are caught in the whirlpool of information, like trapped beasts, exhausting their spirit and strength.
1. Market · Mountain Marsh Reduction
Since last night, the market has been tumultuous, unpredictable. BTC has fallen from above 71,000 yesterday, breaking below the 70,000 mark, with a lowest point around 69,840 USD. As of the time of writing, it is reported at 69,800 USD, a decrease of 2.23%.
This symbolizes 'there is a mountain above the marsh, and the marsh is below the mountain'—the water of the marsh flows down, while the mountain body rises, with yin and yang misaligned, causing the response to fail.
CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation reached $190 million, with over 80,000 people liquidated. Among them, long positions faced $110 million in liquidations, while short positions faced $78.47 million. Both longs and shorts are caught in a dilemma.
The reason for this is still that mouth—Iranian state television states that Iran has launched a new round of missile strikes against Israel. Israeli media disclosed that during an Israeli military operation, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy was killed. Iran denies that negotiations are ongoing, missiles are still flying, and the market can only vote with its feet.
I speak frankly: $70,000 is the key point today. Currently, BTC has fallen below this level, with support seen at the 68,500-68,000 range, which has been tested multiple times recently. The upper pressure is at 71,500-72,000; if it cannot return to this level, do not discuss a reversal. Analysts point out that PCE inflation data will be released on Friday, and the market is waiting for this 'clear trigger point'.
Two, Hotspots · Blind Men Touching an Elephant
Today's hotspots are three, which you need to view with a 'Dao eye':
1. The smoke of war in the Middle East rises again, both longs and shorts suffer.
Today's core news is the death of an Iranian commander—Israeli media quoted sources stating that the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy was killed during an Israeli military operation. Iranian state television claims that Iran has launched a new round of missile strikes against Israel.
IG analysts point out: Iran is assessing the U.S. proposal to end the war, but denied the U.S. claim of formal talks, which makes the market 'highly sensitive to conflicting news and skeptical about achieving a solution in the short term'.
This is the 'response not smooth' of the Xian hexagram—one side says they are in talks, the other says there are no talks; the news fluctuates back and forth, leaving the market getting slapped back and forth. The rise in energy prices triggered by the conflict has reignited inflation concerns, and the market no longer accounts for expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while some central banks, including the European Central Bank, have hinted at possible rate hikes.
I believe: this moment is neither a time to bottom out nor to chase shorts. The chaos in the news is the market's 'chaotic period'. The wisdom of the Xian hexagram is: when the response is not smooth, it is better not to respond. Wait for the dust to settle before taking action.
2. The U.S. Bitcoin reserve bill encounters 'soft shelving'
Another major piece of news: The latest disclosure from BitcoinLaws indicates that the bill (HB1695) regarding Bitcoin reserves in the Tennessee House of Representatives has been 'put behind the budget', meaning it has been 'soft shelved' due to its later scheduling in the legislative agenda.
However, the corresponding Senate bill (No. 2639) is still progressing. What do we call this? It is called 'the interplay of yin and yang'—the House is shelved, the Senate is advancing, the outcome is still uncertain.
I believe: this is short-term bearish for the market, long-term neutral. The shelving of the bill indicates that states in the U.S. still have divergent attitudes towards Bitcoin reserves, but the Senate is still pushing, indicating hope. This matter does not affect Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals, only suppressing short-term sentiment.
3. On-chain anomalies: LINK whale transferred $14.8 million
Although the market has fallen, the on-chain activity is not calm. A Chainlink whale executed a withdrawal worth $14.8 million, splitting 1.62 million LINK tokens into 10 new wallets.
More importantly: the number of wallets holding at least 1,000 LINK tokens has reached a historical high of 25,420, indicating a divergence between institutional accumulation and stagnant price movement. Whales are quietly accumulating, but the price does not rise—this is precisely what Taoism describes as 'great skill appears clumsy'. Big players remain low-key, while retail investors panic.
I remind you: the price of LINK has remained within the narrow range of $7.50 to $10, breaking above $10 is seen as a key trigger point for a new upward trend. Pay attention to this level.
Three, Mindset · Great Debate without Words
(Zhuangzi · On Equalizing Things) says: 'Great debate without words, great benevolence without benevolence.'
In today's market, the biggest noise comes from 'news'. The U.S. side says they are in talks, while the Iranian side says there are no talks; oil prices fall and then rise, rise and then fall; with liquidations of $190 million, both longs and shorts are hit. If you chase after the news, you are likely to get slapped back and forth, exhausting yourself without any gain.
Today's operation, I send you 'three phrases':
Do not go long unless it surpasses 71,500—upper pressure is clear, discuss trend reversal only after a breakthrough.
Do not panic unless it breaks 68,500—as long as this position is held, any pullback is an opportunity.
Do not listen to news, look at K-lines—K-lines are the 'true words' of the market, news is the 'false speech' of the market.
Specific suggestions:
Short-term players: today observe more and act less. The Xian hexagram focuses on 'response', but when the response is not smooth, it is better not to 'respond'. Wait for the market to digest the chaos in the news before making a decision. Friday's PCE data and the $1.86 billion options expiration may become the market's 'clear trigger point'.
Long-term holders: in the range of 68,500-69,000, you can gradually 'connect'. Remember my words—downward movement is a test from the Dao for you; if you endure, it will be a successful foundation.
For those holding cash: do not be anxious about missing out. Placing orders below 68,500 is much safer than chasing highs.
Four, Conclusion
The hexagram's change from Xian indicates loss, with the marsh below the mountain, and response not smooth.
The chaos in today's market stems from the repeated yin and yang in the news. The Iranian commander's death, missiles are still flying, negotiations are ongoing—such news is difficult even for deities to predict. The wisdom of the Xian hexagram is: when the response is not smooth, it is better not to respond.
Wait for the dust to settle, wait for PCE data to land, wait for options to expire, wait for the market to emerge from chaos—then, the Dao will naturally tell you where to go.
Blessed be the Infinite Emperor of Heaven, may all of you, benefactors, observe the changes quietly and act when the time is right.
