US recession alert sounded: Two major institutions simultaneously raise probabilities!
On March 26, strong warning signals appeared in the macro market:
Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months to 48.6% — close to “coin toss” level.
Goldman Sachs also raised the recession probability to 30%.
This is not a prediction, but capital is pricing in risks in advance.
When two top institutions raise the recession probability at the same time, it indicates:
The lagging damage of high interest rates is beginning to show.
Consumption and corporate profits are facing compression.
The financial market is reassessing growth expectations.
Market implication: The next 12 months will enter a “high volatility macro cycle.”
The characteristics of this type of cycle are:
• Stock market rebounds are shorter and sharper.
• Safe-haven assets and risk assets frequently switch.
• Liquidity becomes the core variable determining the market trend.
In summary: The recession probability is approaching 50%, which means the market will trade not on growth, but on “who can’t hold on first.” #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 #美国加密法案再次遇阻 #美伊和谈陷僵局 #国际油价下跌 #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利 $BTC $ETH $BNB