Market Research Report for March 26

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Combining yesterday's operational strategies for better long and short positions

Trend Judgment

My current judgment on BTC and ETH is that the repair rebound after a major drop on the daily level is still continuing, but the 4-hour chart has already entered a consolidation phase, while the 1-hour chart is starting to weaken and retrace.

In other words, this is not yet a new unilateral main rise; it is more like entering a rebalancing phase after a rebound. Therefore, I will consider entering long and short positions based on several pivot points.

Current Trend Structure Analysis

From a structural perspective, BTC has been trading within the range of 69k—72k for the past few days. After rebounding from a low position, it encounters significant resistance every time it approaches the 71.8k—72.3k range.

Today's Trading Plan

Core Idea: Position Trading

If $BTC retraces to the 70.9k—71.2k range and faces resistance again, showing volume without an increase, upper shadows, or absorbed selling pressure, I will prioritize considering a short position, initially targeting 70.3k, and further looking at 69.8k or even around 69.2k.

If BTC first dips to the 69.2k—68.8k area and shows a false breakdown, absorption of selling pressure, and after cleaning up OI, the price re-establishes itself, I will consider a low range long position, targeting back to 70.2k, 71k, and above 71.8k.

The thoughts on $ETH are similar, but relatively more bearish. If it retraces to around 2158—2170 and faces resistance, I will pay closer attention to shorting opportunities, looking first at 2135, then 2120 and around 2100. Only if ETH re-establishes above 2165, and the retracement holds without breaking, with buying pressure following up, will the short-term strength signal become clearer.

Key Resistance and Support

For BTC, the short-term support is first at 70k—70.3k, with strong support at 69.2k—68.8k; the upper resistance is first at 70.9k—71.2k, and further at 71.8k—72.3k.

For ETH, the short-term support is first at 2130—2120, with stronger support at 2105—2090; the upper resistance is first at 2158—2170, and further at 2195—2205.

These positions basically determine whether today will continue in range consolidation or move in a new directional choice.