Author of the news: Crypto Emergency
The Russian cryptocurrency market is preparing for significant changes: next week a bill on cryptocurrency regulation will be submitted to the State Duma, and its adoption is expected by summer. The document will define the rules for the operation of exchanges, exchanges, and the use of digital assets, effectively moving the market from the 'gray zone' to a regulated space.
The key idea is the licensing of platforms and allowing trading only for those investors who have passed testing. Russians will be able to trade on foreign exchanges through 'localized' subsidiary structures.
Against the backdrop of reform discussions, Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov stated that major foreign crypto exchanges are showing interest in the Russian market. According to him, we are talking about global players with 'loud names'.
How the market is transforming: experts' opinions
Experts surveyed by 'RBC-Crypto' assess the prospects ambiguously.
Costs and risks for foreign exchanges
The head of BitOK, Dmitry Machikhin, believes that Russia appears toxic for major players: regulations have not yet been formed, but fines are already provided. In his opinion, the requirement to operate through 'subsidiaries' makes legalization too costly.
He suggests that only a part of the exchanges that took a share of the departed Binance may try to operate under the new rules. For others, it is easier to focus on other markets.
Analyst Nikita Zuborev from Bestchange agrees: major exchanges like Binance or HTX are unlikely to risk officially entering Russia due to the threat of secondary sanctions. He considers Bybit, OKX, KuCoin, and MEXC as more probable candidates — platforms traditionally oriented towards the Russian segment.
Machikhin also reminded that statements about the 'return of major businesses' were already made in 2025, but no real comebacks followed. He suggests that the situation with crypto exchanges may develop similarly.
What users will receive
Alexey Korolenko, the executive director of the crypto broker Cifra Markets, notes that the impact of regulation can only be assessed after specific rules and players appear. However, he is confident that users will benefit in any case: competition among services will intensify, and available opportunities will increase.
New fines and tightening of control
This week it became known that an article on violations of digital currency circulation rules is planned to be added to the Administrative Offenses Code. It introduces liability for crypto exchanges for transactions with unqualified investors if they exceed the established limits.
Fines are provided:
— for legal entities
— up to 1 million rubles,
— for officials
— up to 50 thousand rubles or disqualification for 1–2 years.
Which specific operations will be considered violations is not yet specified. The limits for unqualified investors will be set by the Bank of Russia.
According to Zuborev, predicting the impact of the new norms is difficult: legislation is changing rapidly, and law enforcement remains inconsistent. Nevertheless, it is already clear that the exchange market is awaiting serious transformations.
The expert suggests that an optimal solution could be a model where existing exchanges operate as agents of licensed exchanges and brokers.