Against the backdrop of ongoing global tensions, BTC has shown remarkable resilience—recently, the price briefly returned to $71,500, prompting the question: who is really driving this market surge?
On the surface, #BTC seems to be experiencing a typical "tug-of-war"—one side faces selling pressure, while the other side accumulates. However, digging deeper into on-chain data and exchange flows, we find that the market is actually quietly consolidating, rather than simply switching between bull and bear. #CZ称比特币是硬资产
Whales are emerging, selling or positioning?
Arkham data shows that the #不丹 government recently injected more than 500 BTC into the market, causing some short-term selling pressure.
However, at the same time, institutional giants are quietly accumulating: BlackRock#blackRock has withdrawn over 2,200 BTC from exchanges, an action that typically indicates long-term positioning rather than short-term selling.
Combined with the on-chain capital flow, the exchanges are experiencing continuous net outflows, indicating that BTC is being steadily transferred to cold wallets, with investors preferring to hold long-term. Simply put, the market is quietly being absorbed by stronger buyers, and short-term volatility does not mean weakness. 📈
On-chain indicators reveal the pulse of the market.
From on-chain indicators such as average coin age, consumed coin age, and dormant circulation, the vast majority of bitcoins are still sleeping in wallets. Occasional price fluctuations often correspond to strategic profit-taking or position adjustments by whales. For example, the short-term price surge in mid-March was likely whales quietly repositioning in the market.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator shows that the market is generally in a balanced state, with profit-taking and loss-selling forces roughly equal. When it fell to around 0.982, it only eliminated some weak investors. Overall, these signals suggest that BTC is consolidating rather than weakening. ⚖️
Miner sell-off? The truth may overturn your perception.
It was once rumored that BTC's decline was caused by miner sell-offs—rising costs and profit pressures forced miners to sell.
But on-chain data tells us: the amount of BTC sold by miners has steadily declined since the beginning of 2025, the miner supply ratio continues to decrease, and the Miner Position Index (MPI) is also relatively subdued.
In other words, miner sell-offs are not the main cause; the pressure comes more from weak demand. Supply tightness is no longer an issue; what truly determines whether the market can stabilize is whether buying pressure can return. 📉
Market consolidation or bottom brewing.
Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon: the BTC whale that has been dormant for 13 years has resurfaced, investing approximately $16 million into ENA, AAVE, AVAX, UNI, PENDLE, and others. This further indicates that market players have not chosen to exit but are quietly reallocating funds, preparing for a stronger upward trend in the future.
In the short term, if BTC can hold the $71,200 support and break through the $72,500 resistance, buyers are likely to begin controlling the market rhythm. Conversely, if demand remains weak, even with tight miner supply, BTC still faces further decline risks.
Investor strategy tips: pay attention to demand and whale movements.
Overall, the BTC market is in a delicate balance: miner sell-off is low, supply is tight, but buying pressure is weak. If demand cannot rebound quickly, the risk of a decline remains. Friends in the community can pay attention to several core signals:
Whale activity: The resurgence of whales may be an early warning for market trends.
On-chain capital flow: net outflows from exchanges represent potential accumulation.
Key technical nodes: $71,200 support and $72,500 resistance are the dividing line between bulls and bears.
In simple terms, the market is not merely 'declines caused by miner sell-offs,' but rather 'demand is king.' In the future, whether Bitcoin can form a true bottom will depend on whether buying pressure warms up and what strategic moves the whales make next.
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