Attention to oil has intensified again in the Bitcoin market. In Wintermute, they believe that if oil stabilizes around $100 per barrel, it could help BTC return to the range of $74–76 thousand.
The assessment appeared against the backdrop of instability in the raw materials market and the conflict around the Hormuz Strait. For Bitcoin, this becomes an external factor that may influence the price more than usual in the near future.
Oil has once again become important for BTC.
According to Wintermute, the digital asset market is currently closely monitoring oil news. After a pause in strikes against Iran, Bitcoin managed to recover above $70,000, and short-term risks for the market eased slightly.
Against this backdrop, BTC traded around $71,100. In the basic positive scenario, where movement through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, Wintermute allows for a return to the range of $74–76,000.
If the oil supply situation worsens again, the company considers a Bitcoin pullback to $65,000 possible. This means the market remains very sensitive to any changes surrounding the Middle East.
The relationship between oil and Bitcoin remains unstable.
Wintermute separately emphasizes that Bitcoin does not have a stable and direct dependence on oil in the long run. The market behaved differently at different times.
After the pandemic, the decline in oil was accompanied by a rise in BTC, but in the short term, the picture may be more complicated. Currently, Bitcoin is more likely reacting to how the oil market affects inflation expectations, central bank decisions, and overall liquidity conditions.
That is why traders are advised to watch not only the BTC chart but also the negotiations between the USA and Iran. Any new risk premium in oil immediately changes the mood in the crypto market.
The hawkish Fed is taking a back seat.
Recent signals from the Fed have also impacted the market. After the regulator's tougher comments, it became clear that a rapid reduction in rates should not be expected.
However, in the current configuration, oil appears to be a more noticeable factor for Bitcoin's short-term movement. If the commodity market calms down, some anxiety will dissipate, which could support BTC. If oil rises again due to supply disruptions, the market will return to a more cautious scenario. This is where Wintermute sees the main fork in the coming days.
The market remains in a state of strong anxiety.
As a result of the week ending March 22, Bitcoin lost 6.8%. Gold fell even more sharply by 10.3%. Ether and altcoins also closed the week in the red.
At the same time, the fear and greed index for Bitcoin dropped to 11 points. This is the zone of extreme fear. For Ethereum, the indicator stood at 32 points, which also indicates caution among market participants.
This picture shows that the market has not yet found a stable equilibrium. Oil remains one of the few assets where movement retains a clear direction, making it an important benchmark for other segments.
Periods of expensive oil have already coincided with a weak crypto market.
Wintermute reminds that in 2022, the crypto market declined in conditions of relatively expensive oil. At that time, the industry had its own problems, including the collapse of FTX, but the external environment was also unfavorable.
The situation is different now. There is no comparable systemic crisis within the industry; however, the market remains open to geopolitical risks and general macroeconomic changes.
This makes the current phase especially sensitive to external factors. Bitcoin is no longer moving solely on internal narratives. It increasingly depends on events in the commodity market, central bank politics, and the global economy.
What’s next?
Currently, two scenarios are important for BTC. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes and oil remains around $100 without a new spike, Bitcoin will have a chance to return to the range of $74–76,000. In a more favorable development, the market may again discuss movement towards $80,000.
If the risks in the oil market increase and supply disruptions prolong, the market will return to lower levels. In this case, the area around $65,000 will again be in the spotlight.
For now, the takeaway is this: in the coming days, Bitcoin will watch oil almost as closely as it previously monitored the Fed rate.
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