US launches trade investigation into Vietnam, what will happen to tariffs next?
The United States has recently launched a new trade inquiry under Section 301, targeting 16 major trading partners, including Vietnam.
The action aims to rebuild the legal basis for reimposing duties after the US Supreme Court overturned Trump-era IEEPA tariffs.
For the time being, Vietnamese exporters continue to benefit from a temporary 10% duty rate that is effective for 150 days, or until July 24, 2026.
Prof. Tran Ngoc Anh predicts three possible outcomes after that:
Tariffs are likely to rise again. If the study is completed, sectors such as steel, electric vehicles, and electronics may face tariffs of 20-30%.
2. Tariffs reduce. If Middle East tensions push Brent oil beyond $140 per barrel, increasing US inflation, Washington may be pushed to lower tariffs to keep living costs stable.
3. A negotiated deal. Vietnam might expand its agricultural imports from the United States and increase purchases from Boeing in exchange for 0% tariffs on additional exports.
📈 Big Picture: With approximately $152 billion in trade, the United States is Vietnam's top export market, gaining more than 28% year on year.
Exports increased by around 22% in the first two months of 2026, totaling $23.8 billion.
