Bitcoin falls 20% in 2026: what is behind the drop?
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing one of its most challenging starts to the year in recent history, accumulating a 20% decline in the first months of 2026. Far from the historical high of $122,000 (approximately R$ 732,000) reached in October of last year, the cryptocurrency is now struggling to maintain support in the range of $58,000 to $62,000 (R$ 348,000 to R$ 372,000). The asset, which many expected to act as a continuous safe haven, has behaved with extreme sensitivity to macroeconomic pressures, frustrating the expectation of an uninterrupted “supercycle” under the new US administration.
The global scenario has deteriorated rapidly, combining geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically between Israel and Iran, with an aggressive shift in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve under the leadership of Kevin Warsh. For the market, the retreat is not just a technical correction, but a recalibration of expectations in light of interest rates that insist on remaining high. The question dominating trading floors is clear: are we facing a generational discount opportunity or the beginning of a prolonged crypto winter driven by regulation?
What do the data reveal?
-20% year-to-date — “The Handbrake Pulled”: Unlike quick corrections (flash crashes), this decline is structural and slow. Bitcoin has lost about 44% since its historical peak in 2025, signaling an exhaustion of retail demand that cannot absorb the pressure of institutional selling.
Daily Volume Down 18% — “The Liquidity Desert”: On-chain data indicate that trading volume has significantly retreated since the peaks in February. When prices fall with decreasing volume, it generally indicates a lack of buying interest at current levels, suggesting that the “bottom” may still not have been found.
Government Sales (Germany and the US) — “The Sovereign Dump”: Wallets linked to governments, including noted liquidations from Germany.