Good morning. As the monthly major settlement approaches on the fifth week, BTC has successfully stabilized above the $71,000 mark. Last night's surge and retreat cleared out the short-term leverage chasing highs, and the market has returned to a rhythmic oscillation, preparing for the final direction choice for tomorrow.
1. Core Facts (The Facts)
BTC Market: Currently reported at $71,203.25, with a 24h increase of +0.69%.
Technical indicators: The 1-hour level is operating near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($71,196). Although the MACD is above the zero axis, the red bar momentum continues to shrink, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening.
Capital flow: On March 25, the spot BTC ETF continued to see a net inflow, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the beginning of the week, the institutions' 'bottom warehouse thinking' remains solid.
Self-calibration of accuracy: The highest point in the screenshot was corrected to $72,026.09, and the current pullback of about 1% is considered a healthy fluctuation.
2. Logic rehearsal (The Logic)
Long and short tug-of-war: The price encountered significant resistance around $72,000, indicating that there are still a large number of profit-taking orders to digest above. The current consolidation is aimed at completely transforming $71,000 into new structured support.
Settlement pressure: [Uncertainty reminder] Friday is the Deribit monthly options settlement day. Currently, the market tends to correct towards the 'maximum pain' position. If there is no significant positive news before the settlement, the probability of breaking through $73,000 is low.
3. Key outlook (Upcoming Events)
Tonight (March 26): The final value of the U.S. Q4 GDP. If the economic data exceeds expectations, it may delay the interest rate cut expectations, triggering a rebound in the dollar and putting pressure on crypto assets.
Tomorrow (March 27): Deribit monthly large settlement. This will be the peak of volatility for this month, and a significant adjustment of positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars is expected.
Policy aspect: Continuously pay attention to policy positioning after the RWA hearing. The market currently holds an optimistic view on the compliance expectations of 'asset tokenization'.
4. Execution advice (Action)
Position status: It is recommended to continue playing dead with the spot (Hold). This is not the time for large-scale position adjustments.
Risk control management: Move the stop-loss for long positions up to $70,355 (Bollinger lower band). If this level is breached, be wary of malicious spikes before the settlement.
Entry point: [Uncertainty reminder] It is recommended to wait until the completion of the large settlement on Friday and the volatility returns to normal before considering new leveraged positions.
☕ Today's notes:
On the turbulent sea, the best helmsman is often the one who knows how to 'lower the sails'. Tomorrow's settlement is the big wave, today's fluctuation is the accumulation of momentum. Stay rational and only earn money within logic.
