The market is once again being lulled with headlines about "diplomacy," but the facts currently suggest otherwise.
Iran is showing a tough stance through state channels, Israel (according to NYT) is ramping up strikes in the next 48 hours, and the U.S. is bringing forces to the region — all amidst discussions of a "possible deal."
It sounds less like de-escalation and more like a classic pause before a new wave of tension.
What this means for the market:
• The geopolitical premium in oil may sharply widen
• Risk assets will remain nervous
• Any “positive rumor” without confirmation can easily reverse into a drop
Base scenario: volatility up, followed by another sharp risk-off impulse.
Yes, local rebounds will occur. But this does not negate the chance of another decline.
I am currently viewing the market as follows:
1. cash and risk management are more important than "guessing the bottom"
2. entries only in parts
3. leverage — minimal or none
4. a plan for -10/-15% should be prepared in advance, not in the moment of panic
Those ready for another wave down will calmly take the best prices later.
Those unprepared will again become liquidity for others’ take profits.
NFA. DYOR.