As soon as Trump released the news that there was progress in the US-Iran negotiations, the market immediately began to trade on the "de-escalation of war" narrative.
BTC rose to $71,000, up 1.64% for the day, and oil prices clearly fell back, indicating that funds have been shifting from safe-haven assets to risk assets. In plain terms, what everyone is betting on now is not that the situation will end completely, but that the worst-case scenario will not happen in the short term.
From market data, there was a liquidation of $234 million across the network in the last 24 hours, with longs and shorts basically balanced, indicating that this wave of increase is more like emotional recovery, rather than a one-sided crush. The Fear & Greed Index has risen, social media heat has picked up, and the market is starting to regain a sense of bullishness. Additionally, institutions like BlackRock are still continuously withdrawing BTC, which actually indicates a stance; at least, large funds have not turned bearish due to short-term fluctuations.
In my own view, this rebound is more "expectation-driven" rather than a complete fundamental reversal. Geopolitical news still has a significant impact on the market; today the market can rise due to negotiation expectations, while tomorrow it might drop back because of a tough statement. So it's fine to be bullish now, but don't get too carried away as soon as it rises. Short-term sentiment has indeed warmed up, but whether it can develop into a sustained trend still depends on whether future news will continue to cooperate, and whether BTC can stabilize at this level.
In simple terms: the market has now taken a breath, but it’s not yet time to feel completely at ease. #特朗普缓和局势 $BTC
