I've seen too many people rush in with dreams of getting rich, burying themselves in daily studies of various skills, KDJ, MACD, and wave counts that are sharper than anyone else's. What’s the result? A flurry of operations as fierce as a tiger, only to find the account has just five left. Ironic, right? Every trick and fancy tactic you learn could turn into a sharper sickle for the market makers to cut you down.
Why? Because all the intricate techniques are teaching you to 'predict' and 'capture.' Those smart money holders in the market, with their large funds, love to use your 'predictions' and 'greed.' When you feel like 'a breakthrough is imminent' and rush in, you may just be picking up someone else's chips; when you 'feel like it's about to collapse' and cut your losses, you might just fall right before dawn. The tragedy of millions of people being liquidated in 48 hours is a bloody live broadcast of collective emotions being manipulated to the extreme.
So, after so many years, I increasingly believe in a seemingly 'stupid' principle: in this game, living long is a thousand times more important than earning quickly. What keeps you alive is not some precise indicator, but a few 'dead rules' ingrained in your bones.
Let me share my own painful experiences; if you make any of these mistakes, you're basically out of the game:
1. In lively places, never squeeze in. When a coin is being shouted to 'take off' and 'double immediately' in various groups, and the community is buzzing, you need to be alert. This is often a signal that the feast is nearing its end, and it's time to settle the bill. Real opportunities mostly arise when no one cares, and the discussion area is as deserted as a ghost town.
2. Never, ever put all your eggs in one basket, and especially don't bet everything at once. You may be optimistic about one direction, but don't go all in on one coin. It's best to have different roles in your account: some stable, some aggressive, and some for hedging risks. More importantly, never be fully invested! You must leave some reserves. This market can fluctuate 20% in a single day, and if you make a wrong judgment while fully invested, you will be out directly, without even a chance to turn back and see the cards. My own iron rule is that no matter how optimistic I am, my position should never exceed 70%, leaving at least 30% in cash; that's your lifeline and the bullets to seize opportunities.
3. Control your hands; it's more important than knowing how to trade. Most people lose 80% of their losses during those indecisive, sideways trading periods. If the direction is unclear, don't act. If you don't understand, don't do it. Frequently entering and exiting during those 1% and 2% fluctuations to make a little money is not enough to cover transaction fees, and it can easily ruin your mindset, leaving you behind during a big fluctuation.
So what should be done? Here are a few 'foolish' methods that have helped me stay steady until now:
1. During a major drop, especially with high volume, don't panic and run; keep your eyes wide open. For the assets you are optimistic about and have researched, a steep drop is often like gold falling from the sky. History has repeatedly proven that big funds love to quietly buy when retail investors are panicking and selling. What you need to do is not join the stampede, but prepare your 'sack' and devise a plan for phased purchases.
2. Learn to stockpile in a 'pyramid' style, pushing your average cost below the cost line of most market participants. When you find a coin you like, don't go all in at once. Start with a small position (like 20%) to test, and once you confirm the trend is established, gradually increase your position during pullbacks. This way, your overall cost will have a significant advantage, and with a slight rebound in price, you will start making a profit, keeping your mindset as stable as a mountain.
3. The most crucial point: for any trade, first think about how to withdraw, then think about how much to earn. A simple and brutal principle: the loss on a single trade must never exceed 2% of your total capital. Work backward from your stop-loss position based on your position size. Also, when you are lucky enough to catch a wave of price increase, and the coin price skyrockets but then starts to stagnate, pull out your principal first! Let the profits fly. This way, you are always playing the game with your 'zero-cost' chips, and your mindset is completely different.
These methods are 'foolish' in that they require no technical skills, you don't need to be very smart, but you need strong discipline and patience to counter the greed and fear inherent in human nature. And what the market makers and algorithms fear the most are these emotionless 'fools'.
Of course, just having discipline is not enough; your decisions need to be based on clear data and on-chain traces, not on 'I heard' in groups. You need to see what big funds are doing, not guess what they might be doing. Pay attention to real capital flows and changes in the long-short sentiment of the contract market; these are the 'eyes' that help you avoid deep pits and discover opportunities.
This circle is very cruel, and the elimination rate is extremely high. But its rewards are always reserved for those few who are sufficiently clear-headed and disciplined. Don’t strive to be a genius with a single move; work hard to be an indestructible 'fool', and you've already won against 90% of the people.
I am Sister Bing, and I hope we can all live long and earn steadily.
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