The last day of the event, today I wrote @MidnightNetwork , no more talking about “Cardano sidechain savior” or “ZK race new king” such vain slogans. Everyone is praising “rational privacy,” but peeling off this layer of compliance, its extremely alternative dual-token economic model (NIGHT + DUST) is the fundamental factor determining its life and death.

Logically, IOG's move is quite decisive: completely severing the speculative asset (night) from the consumable fuel (DUST). Buying NIGHT is like buying a power bank, just sitting there can generate non-transferable DUST to pay for the Gas fees of privacy contracts. For traditional enterprises that calculate costs every day, the costs are finally predictable, without worrying that skyrocketing coin prices will make on-chain business untenable; this perfectly fits the To B narrative for institutional entry.

But this is exactly where I am most cautious: the extreme appeasement of the B-side may very well sacrifice the speculative outbreak power of the C-side. The Crypto market is essentially driven by expectations and liquidity; since DUST cannot be speculated, what can retail investors do with NIGHT besides making swings and getting low guarantees? If, after the mainnet starts, there are no real traditional business scenarios coming in to crazily consume these DUST, then this “power bank” mechanism will turn into a stagnant internal competition game. The expansion cycle of the enterprise-level market is often calculated in years, but the patience of funds in the crypto circle only lasts three days.

So I will not pay attention to any airdrop heat next, only focusing on two hard data points: first, the actual DUST burning rate on-chain, and second, whether there are non-Web3 native physical enterprises buying $NIGHT to run business. Don't fool people with the TPS generated by the wool party on the testnet; without real commercial consumption scenarios, even the most compliant ZK is just a beautiful bonsai. In this hellish arena, only when the business closed loop runs smoothly can we talk about a valuation of billions! #night