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Inflation is stagnant, don't expect interest rate cuts this year? A statement from a Fed official has left the market in a panic!
Fed official Goolsbee's latest remarks have doused the market's 'dream of rate cuts' with cold water. He was very straightforward: if inflation doesn't show improvement, interest rates won't go down this year. Moreover, he added a caveat—it's uncertain whether further rate cuts can be made, and it largely depends on how long the geopolitical conflicts last and how significant their impact is.
Translated, this means: don’t rush to dream of interest rate cuts; the war hasn’t stopped, inflation is hard to control, and the Fed is hesitant to act recklessly.
So how does the market view this? The latest data from CME's 'Fed Watch' shows that while the probability of a rate hike in April is only 9.3%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is as high as 90.7%, indicating that there will likely be no changes in the short term. However, looking ahead to June, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points has quietly crept up to 17.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped to 80.2%.
What does this mean? Although the market claims it’s not urgent, its actions are quite honest—it's already pricing in a 'delay in rate hikes'.
Goolsbee's remarks are not just empty words. Geopolitics, energy prices, supply chains—each is a potential trigger for an explosion. Once the situation escalates again, if inflation cannot be contained, the Fed won't just hesitate to cut rates, it may struggle to maintain the status quo.
Currently, the biggest suspense in the market is not 'when will rates be cut', but rather—can cuts even happen this year?
$ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
$XAU
{future}(XAUUSDT)
$BTC #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利 #特朗普缓和局势 #金价连续第十天下跌
What do you think? Is the Fed being restrained by inflation, or are we all overinterpreting? Let's discuss in the comments.
Fed official Goolsbee's latest remarks have doused the market's 'dream of rate cuts' with cold water. He was very straightforward: if inflation doesn't show improvement, interest rates won't go down this year. Moreover, he added a caveat—it's uncertain whether further rate cuts can be made, and it largely depends on how long the geopolitical conflicts last and how significant their impact is.
Translated, this means: don’t rush to dream of interest rate cuts; the war hasn’t stopped, inflation is hard to control, and the Fed is hesitant to act recklessly.
So how does the market view this? The latest data from CME's 'Fed Watch' shows that while the probability of a rate hike in April is only 9.3%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is as high as 90.7%, indicating that there will likely be no changes in the short term. However, looking ahead to June, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points has quietly crept up to 17.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped to 80.2%.
What does this mean? Although the market claims it’s not urgent, its actions are quite honest—it's already pricing in a 'delay in rate hikes'.
Goolsbee's remarks are not just empty words. Geopolitics, energy prices, supply chains—each is a potential trigger for an explosion. Once the situation escalates again, if inflation cannot be contained, the Fed won't just hesitate to cut rates, it may struggle to maintain the status quo.
Currently, the biggest suspense in the market is not 'when will rates be cut', but rather—can cuts even happen this year?
$ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
$XAU
{future}(XAUUSDT)
$BTC #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利 #特朗普缓和局势 #金价连续第十天下跌
What do you think? Is the Fed being restrained by inflation, or are we all overinterpreting? Let's discuss in the comments.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.