The signal released by Trump this time indeed made the market push the 'worst-case scenario' further back for the short term, so Bitcoin surged along with risk assets, which is a normal reaction. On March 23, he announced a five-day delay in the strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, and oil prices and gold clearly retreated, while the stock market and crypto market warmed up synchronously, with BTC once surging to around 71,782 USD. The problem is that Iran denies the existence of negotiations, and the current scope of the paused strikes mainly concerns energy facilities, which does not mean that the conflict is truly over. In other words, the market is buying into the 'easing expectations,' not 'certain peace.' #特朗普缓和局势

So I would interpret this wave as: the emotional recovery is quick, but the faith recovery is not so fast.

On the surface, prices have risen, and social discussions have clearly heated up. Santiment's data indeed shows that BTC's social volume surged by 38%, indicating that everyone is watching the geopolitical line. However, the derivatives market has not shown that kind of 'full chase for long' sentiment. CoinDesk previously mentioned that the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has been persistently negative since the beginning of March, indicating that the market's bearish and defensive mindset has not completely reversed; CoinGlass also shows that the open interest in futures and the funding rate are still important windows for observing sentiment. My understanding is that many people are willing to take a foot in the rebound, but are not yet willing to place heavy bets on 'sustained increases.'

To put it bluntly, this kind of market looks like:

Spot is optimistic, contracts are skeptical.

And this structure may not necessarily be a bad thing. Because if everyone goes crazy with leverage at the first sign of news, it could rather easily turn into a short-lived pump. The current state of 'prices rising first, derivatives not fully following' indicates that the market is still observing and has not reached a point of losing rationality. However, because of this, once the news from the Middle East fluctuates, BTC is likely to continue experiencing significant volatility.