Post
查理-Charlie
·
--
Someone asked me if I can bottom out at $NIGHT ?
I just showed him the roadmap. We are currently in the Kūkolu phase, the federal mainnet, where all nodes are institutions, and ordinary users have no entry point for participation.
Only in Q2 did we enter the incentive testnet Mōhalu, starting to have developer incentives, but it is still a testnet. Only in Q3 will we connect to LayerZero for cross-chain, and that's when it will truly start to have the conditions for traffic to come in.
From now until Q3, at least six months.
During these six months, #night will continue to face the thawing unlock of Glacier Drop, with 170,000 wallets queuing to receive a batch every 90 days, and each batch represents potential selling pressure @MidnightNetwork .
At the same time, the mainnet has no real users, DApps are zero, and on-chain data is empty. What will support the price during these six months? It relies on announcements and partner lists.
This doesn’t mean the project will definitely die, but the logic of bottoming out needs to be clear. What are we betting on by bottoming out?
We are betting that the Q2 testnet can attract enough developers, betting that the Q3 cross-chain will go smoothly, and betting that there will be no new governance storms or technical issues during the entire process.
Each bet compounds together; the winning rate is not additive, but multiplicative.
I have some NIGHT that came out of Scavenger Mine hanging around, and I haven’t moved it.
I also don’t plan to increase my position now; I will wait until I see real applications running on the testnet. Just looking at the roadmap is not enough.
I just showed him the roadmap. We are currently in the Kūkolu phase, the federal mainnet, where all nodes are institutions, and ordinary users have no entry point for participation.
Only in Q2 did we enter the incentive testnet Mōhalu, starting to have developer incentives, but it is still a testnet. Only in Q3 will we connect to LayerZero for cross-chain, and that's when it will truly start to have the conditions for traffic to come in.
From now until Q3, at least six months.
During these six months, #night will continue to face the thawing unlock of Glacier Drop, with 170,000 wallets queuing to receive a batch every 90 days, and each batch represents potential selling pressure @MidnightNetwork .
At the same time, the mainnet has no real users, DApps are zero, and on-chain data is empty. What will support the price during these six months? It relies on announcements and partner lists.
This doesn’t mean the project will definitely die, but the logic of bottoming out needs to be clear. What are we betting on by bottoming out?
We are betting that the Q2 testnet can attract enough developers, betting that the Q3 cross-chain will go smoothly, and betting that there will be no new governance storms or technical issues during the entire process.
Each bet compounds together; the winning rate is not additive, but multiplicative.
I have some NIGHT that came out of Scavenger Mine hanging around, and I haven’t moved it.
I also don’t plan to increase my position now; I will wait until I see real applications running on the testnet. Just looking at the roadmap is not enough.