An all-nighter, the global market is turned upside down! Trump suddenly announces, "The US and Iran have had perfect dialogue and will soon end the conflict," causing a sharp rise in the crypto market, with Bitcoin soaring 3% to break $71,000. Ethereum and BNB follow suit, but just as retail investors are celebrating their entry, Iran douses the excitement with cold water—"There are no negotiations at all, it's all false propaganda from the US!"
This "Rashomon" more thrilling than contract liquidations, is it Trump's delaying tactic or a signal for a new bull market in crypto? As traders on Binance Square, what we should be most wary of is not the news itself, but the manipulated market sentiments behind the news, as well as the profit opportunities and deadly traps hidden in the candlestick charts.
First, let's clarify the timeline of this grand drama, as each node is harvesting the emotions of the crypto market: On March 23, Trump suddenly announced to the media that the US and Iran had engaged in 'strong and perfect' dialogues over the past two days and had formed agreement points. He ordered a 5-day delay for the planned strikes on Iran's power stations, stating that if the dialogue went smoothly, it would completely end the conflict between the two countries. He even made a tough statement, 'Iran is very eager to reach an agreement, and results could be forthcoming within 5 days,' even revealing that the US negotiators were presidential envoy Whittaker and his son-in-law Kushner, with Israel also being 'very satisfied' with the current progress.
Once the news broke, global markets shifted dramatically: international oil prices plummeted nearly 14% during trading, US stocks rebounded across the board, and the crypto market celebrated wildly—Bitcoin surged from around $69,000, gaining over 3% on the day, briefly breaking past $71,000, while Ethereum rose over 4%. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like BNB and XRP followed suit. According to CoinGlass data, over 200,000 people in the cryptocurrency market were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidation amounts reaching $794 million, where long and short positions were almost equally pressured. Many retail investors chased the rise without noticing a fatal detail: Iran has been denying the existence of negotiations from the start.
Not long after Trump spoke, Iran's Islamic Consultative Assembly Speaker Ghalibaf directly posted on social media, clearly denying any dialogue with the US, claiming the relevant information is 'false' and intended to manipulate financial and oil markets, paving the way for the US and Israel to extricate themselves from the current predicament. Iranian officials at all levels will firmly support the Supreme Leader and the people, with no change in position. Subsequently, the Iranian Foreign Ministry also stated that during the past 24 days of conflict, Iran has never engaged in any negotiations with the US, and any attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure will receive a 'decisive, immediate, and effective' counterattack.
On one hand, there are Trump's assertive 'negotiation points,' and on the other, Iran's firm 'never engaged.' This contradictory statement essentially represents Trump's 'psychological warfare'—based on previous information, the US has three main objectives behind this move: First, to manipulate the market by releasing a 'ceasefire' signal to suppress oil prices and alleviate domestic inflation pressures; second, as a delaying tactic to buy time for the redeployed US troops; third, to create internal divisions within Iran, disrupting its decision-making rhythm. The crypto market is merely an 'appendage' caught up in the emotional turmoil of this geopolitical contest.
Why can this 'Rashomon' of the US-Iran conflict directly trigger the crypto market? The core reasons are two, both of which are closely related to us Binance traders:
First, the 'safe-haven logic' shift of geopolitical conflicts. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in late February, cryptocurrencies have shown unique resilience—oil prices have risen over 40%, gold has fallen about 5%, and the MSCI Global Index has dropped 4%, while Bitcoin has increased by nearly 14% since the conflict began, becoming a relatively stable 'safe-haven choice.' Previously, the market was concerned that escalating conflicts would lead to a breakdown in global energy supply and intensified inflation, causing funds to flock into cryptocurrencies for safety; however, the 'ceasefire signal' released by Trump has allowed market risk appetite to rebound, with short-term funds following suit, driving up cryptocurrency prices. However, this rise is essentially 'emotion-driven' rather than fundamentally supported.
Second, the market's expectation for 'liquidity easing' is at play. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the March monetary policy meeting, with the dot plot indicating only one rate cut for the entire year, while Powell released hawkish signals. The fluctuations in oil prices directly influence the Fed's interest rate decisions—if the US-Iran conflict ends, oil prices decline, and inflation pressures ease, the Fed's rate cut expectations may recover, which would be a long-term benefit for cryptocurrencies; however, if the conflict continues and oil prices remain high, the possibility of rate cuts may drop to zero, and even rate hikes cannot be ruled out, the crypto market will once again face liquidity tightening pressures. This is also why a single statement from Trump can instantly switch the logic of gains and losses in the crypto market.
The key point here is, as traders in Binance Square, how should we operate next? Remember three points: avoid traps, seize opportunities, and do not become harvested retail investors.
1. Refuse to follow trends and chase highs or lows, be wary of 'news traps.' The current US-Iran situation is still unclear; Trump's 'ceasefire signal' seems more like a delaying tactic. Iran's strong denial indicates that the conflict could escalate at any time; the short-term rise in cryptocurrency prices lacks sustained support. At this time, chasing highs may likely leave you trapped at elevated levels. It is advised to remain observant, waiting for clarity in the situation—not to be swept away by short-term emotions—the core of making money in the crypto market has never been 'chasing news,' but 'waiting for certainty.'
2. Focus on core variables and manage your positions well. Key signals to watch for moving forward: First, the dynamics within the 5-day buffer period of the US-Iran situation, whether there are substantial negotiation progress; second, the trend of oil prices. If oil prices continue to decline, it could revive interest rate cut expectations, benefiting mainstream cryptocurrencies. If oil prices rebound, caution is needed for potential corrections in the crypto market. Positions should be controlled at 30-50%, avoid heavy positions and all-in strategies, and reserve funds to cope with sudden fluctuations. Contract traders should try to avoid high leverage to prevent being repeatedly harvested by news.
3. Long-term layout, focusing on core assets. From a long-term perspective, the trend of cryptocurrencies ultimately depends on liquidity and institutional capital flows—data shows that this month, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted approximately $1.5 billion in inflows, with institutions like MicroStrategy continuously increasing their Bitcoin positions. This is the core support for the long-term rise in cryptocurrency prices. Short-term geopolitical news is merely an 'interlude'; there is no need to be overly concerned about single-day fluctuations. Focusing on core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum and positioning during pullbacks is a more robust strategy.
Final reminder to everyone: The cryptocurrency market has always been 'driven by news in the short term, determined by value in the long term.' A single statement from Trump can lead to a wild celebration in the crypto world overnight or cause 200,000 people to get liquidated in a night. However, this 'Rashomon' of the US-Iran conflict will eventually settle down. As traders, what we need to do is to remain rational, not be swayed by market emotions, and find certainty amidst the chaos to go further in the crypto world.
Let's discuss in the comments: Do you think Trump truly wants to end the Iran conflict, or is he simply manipulating the market? What is your current position, and how do you plan to respond to the upcoming fluctuations in the crypto market? Follow me for continuous tracking of the US-Iran situation and cryptocurrency trends, let's avoid pitfalls together and profit in Binance Square!