I have recently been continuously tracking @MidnightNetwork from the perspective of market sentiment and capital game. I have compiled social data for the past 30 days: On platform X, under the tag #night , the highest daily sentiment reached 126,000 posts, but the number of real independent posters accounted for only 11%, with a large number being bots inflating the numbers. In terms of contract holdings, over the past two weeks, the proportion of retail investors' long positions has risen from 42% to 67%, while the holdings of large investors continue to decrease, a typical "retail investors taking over, large investors distributing" structure. $NIGHT
The long-term value investment logic emphasized in the white paper has completely turned into short-term speculation in the market. Recently, an analyst in the community shouted, "Before the mainnet, it must break 0.1U," but the number of large outflow addresses on the chain has exceeded 80, with a cumulative market value of over ten million dollars. I have observed that when good news appears, the rise is weak, and when bad news appears, the decline amplifies, with the sentiment of capital game far exceeding the consensus on value.
I believe that Midnight does have technical value, but the current market has become completely speculative, and the capital structure is severely imbalanced. Retail investors are swept into the market by sentiment, yet they ignore the reality of large investors continuously exiting. Even if the project's long-term logic is coherent, it cannot withstand short-term capital stampedes. To return to value, we must first squeeze out the speculative bubble; otherwise, future fluctuations will only become more extreme. #BTC
