Trump's 48-hour ultimatum is, to put it bluntly, more for the voters than for Iran. If oil prices really hit $100, it would essentially be political suicide for the U.S. president, and he can't possibly be unaware of that.

But the problem is that Iran's mindset has changed. After years of sanctions, negotiations, and torn agreements, they have implicitly accepted one thing: negotiating with the U.S. lacks long-term credibility. So this time, getting them to sit down and talk seriously is much harder than before. They are more inclined to first "show some color" before discussing anything else.

However, many people think about this matter too linearly, claiming that Iran wants to push up oil prices to severely impact the U.S. stock market; this logic is somewhat idealistic. Today's America is not the same country that relied solely on imported oil; higher oil prices will indeed pressure consumption, but they also provide a lifeline to America's own energy industry. You could argue there will be an impact, but it won't crash the stock market entirely.

What to watch is not whether there will be a fight, but to what extent it will escalate.

A person like Trump doesn't need to wage a real large-scale war; he just needs to make the market and voters feel - he is tough, he dares to take action, but the situation is still under control. #亚洲股市重挫 #特朗普48小时最后通牒 #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅

Don't mention that stock markets in other countries have all collapsed, gold and silver have directly broken through.