The multi-army has suffered losses, Trump is applying pressure + Iran is holding on, the geopolitical bomb has not been defused, and the market should not expect to settle down.

ETH has already dropped to $2,030 today, leaving only the final layer of skin before reaching the $2,000 round number.

From the end of February when the US-Israel coalition bombed Tehran to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and crazily attacking passing merchant ships, this war is already no longer a "Middle Eastern regional conflict"—it is threatening 20% of global oil transportation routes, and every risk asset is being repriced.

My judgment has only two paths:

Conflict continues to escalate: geopolitical risk premiums will not disappear, every round of panic is a new round of deleveraging. ETH is unlikely to hold $2,000—don’t fantasize about how strong the round number is; panic selling does not care about technicals.

The Strait of Hormuz is truly unblocked: the logic completely reverses. Oil price expectations decline, inflationary pressure eases, and risk aversion sentiment recedes. Once this heavy stone pressing down on risk assets is lifted, the rebound speed will be much faster than during the decline. By then, those who miss out will be worse off than those who cut losses.

The question is—when will it be unblocked? No one knows.

Iran has recently started allowing Japanese and Turkish ships to pass, which seems to be a sign of easing. But Trump is constantly applying pressure, Israel is continually taking action, and the hardliners in Iran are still in power; this situation could deteriorate again at any time, and selective releases do not equal real compromises.

What I am doing now:

Control leverage → Save bullets → Do not chase → Wait for clarity.

If a panic sell occurs below $2,000, it is actually where I prepare to increase my position. That kind of drop is driven by emotions, not because ETH's fundamentals have deteriorated.

Remember this core logic: war causes crypto to drop first, and ceasefire causes crypto to rise first.

Can your current position withstand the knife of escalating war? #特朗普48小时最后通牒 $ETH