It is now 2026.03.23 at 12:18 PM. The weekend market conditions align with the expectations of the previous days' market analysis. This morning, the lowest drop reached 87300 before starting to rebound. Currently, the rebound momentum is very weak, fluctuating below the pressure point of 88588. The recent decline in BTC prices has also led to continuous losses or liquidations for the iron-headed bulls. I wonder if those who mindlessly believed that the price would go to ninety thousand have started shorting again. Personally, I believe that the important support for BTC is around 65000-66000 dollars; that is the last chance for the bulls. We will see if a relatively strong rebound can occur there. The key points to watch above are at the three pressure positions of 70388-71888-73888. The ETH price has also fallen below the important support of 2100, and I temporarily do not recommend bulls to enter the market.
Last week, the price of gold broke below the support line of $4500 per ounce, setting the largest weekly decline in 43 years. The last time was a few weeks ago, and this year is destined to be extraordinary, with many historical records being broken. Currently, the gold price is around $4350, erasing all gains since the beginning of the year. Many friends ask how gold can still be falling amid the chaos in the Middle East? Many news reports say analysts believe the peak of gold is not at $6000? Yes, I won't refute that; please look at my previous analyses. Those who listen to advice won't get stuck at the mountain top; even if it reaches $6000, so what? The increase is only 20-30%, and the risk is too great. As for national-level buying behavior, I can only advise everyone not to gamble with your entire fortune or your investment account balance following the state’s minuscule actions.
In terms of oil, it remains high and fluctuating, giving a strong sense of soaring, with prices of petroleum-related products, including rubber, continuing to rise. Over the weekend, several domestic news stories sparked heated discussions among netizens, such as Russia preferring to pay fines rather than allowing oil tankers bound for Dongda to divert to India, and Taiwan's natural gas reserves for power generation only lasting a few more days, raising alarms. The first news story, processed according to the contract and paying the fine, leaves no right or wrong; one cannot use morality to bind the interests of others. As for Taiwan, it depends on whether its American patron can coordinate natural gas from Australia for it, as its relationship with Southeast Asian oil and gas exporting countries is not great either. There is no need to worry about domestic reserves for now; the domestic energy and chemical industry is no longer what it was a decade ago, especially the coal-to-oil industry can fill part of the gap. Players in the A-share market can look at CNOOC, which announced its extraction cost at around $26 per barrel at the beginning of the year, while transportation costs are extremely low. This year's earnings should be considerable; if the market value doesn't rise, then it’s not a market issue, as brokers have already told you when opening a stock account: there are risks.
Last week, Dongda had another hot topic, as Dongda suspended its trade with BHP. This doesn't have much impact, as domestic steel demand is still at a low point; a slight reduction in iron ore imports can help raise domestic steel prices and relieve some pressure on domestic steel companies, waiting for both sides to negotiate and make concessions.
Currently, I personally do not want to go long on the open strategy, so I will continue to wait for high short positions at key locations above.
