Tonight at 3 AM, all eyes in the market will be on Powell.

The core of this meeting is not about whether to cut interest rates, but rather a combination of 'rate cut + tone of speech.'

A 25bp rate cut has basically become a foregone conclusion, the key lies in the Federal Reserve likely adopting a 'hawkish rate cut' - easing monetary policy in action, but maintaining a tough tone in speeches, superficially showing goodwill while actually cooling the market to avoid excessive enthusiasm.

There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve; one side worries about a slowdown in employment and advocates for continuous rate cuts to support the economy; the other side is cautious about persistent inflation and insists on maintaining a prudent policy. This division is likely to be reflected in the dot plot, with increased uncertainty regarding future rate cuts.

The logic in the cryptocurrency circle is very clear: ① High risk in the short term, a rate cut does not necessarily mean good news. If Powell hints at slowing the pace of rate cuts, the market may experience severe fluctuations, and high-leverage players must strictly control risks; ② In the medium term, closely monitor the balance sheet, signals of slowing or expanding the balance sheet are the real good news for liquidity; ③ The overall direction is bullish despite fluctuations, there may be a washout tonight, but structural trends will not be interrupted by a single meeting.

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