99% of people naively believe: Federal Reserve rate cuts = bull market in cryptocurrencies.

But what’s the reality? It’s completely different. Looking back at the last four bull markets:

In 2017, BTC soared to $19,800, while the Federal Reserve was in a rate hike cycle (interest rate 1.25%-1.50%); in November 2021, BTC hit a peak of $69,000, with interest rates close to 0 for a long time, and the actual rate cuts had already begun in March 2020; in 2023, BTC rebounded to $73,000, still within a rate hike cycle; in 2024, BTC skyrocketed from $74,000 to $123,000, with interest rates remaining almost unchanged.

In fact, the expectation of rate cuts can boost market sentiment, but the rate cuts themselves do not immediately drive prices up; the real market explosion often occurs during a phase of stable interest rates. The core driver of the cryptocurrency bull market has never been rate cuts, but rather the explosion of applications: Ethereum rose in 2017, followed by the explosion of NFTs and GameFi in 2021 + institutional entry, and later driven by ETF expectations.

Rate cuts are essentially a means of reducing burdens in a weakening economy; for the cryptocurrency market, new funds may not necessarily enter, and existing funds may become more conservative. Bull markets have never been born from rate cuts, but rather ignited by the implementation of applications + market expectations; rate cuts are merely a backdrop, and market peaks often occur well in advance. #机构疯抢以太坊 #币安aloha上新 #山寨季何时到来？ $BTC

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