#ETH Based on the current trend, here are the key observation areas and operational ideas for both long and short positions:
Potential bullish opportunity:
• Observation area: Pay attention to whether a stabilization signal appears near 2046.64 (such as a long lower shadow in the hourly chart, or three consecutive K-lines not breaking the previous low).
• Confirmation condition: If the price rebounds and breaks through the lower edge of the previous consolidation range (should be combined with the previous low point of the oscillation platform in the chart), it can be seen as a weakening of short-term downward momentum. With trading volume gradually increasing, consider a light position to try going long.
• Risk control: If the price breaks below 2046 again with increased volume and cannot quickly recover, a stop-loss should be executed.
Potential opportunities for bears:
• Observation area: if the price rebounds to the mid-axis of the previous fluctuation consolidation area (can refer to the recent rebound high point near the start of the last drop), and shows signs of stagnation (such as upper shadows, engulfing patterns).
• Confirmation condition: price rebounds and then weakens again, and breaks below the support level of 2046.64, which can be regarded as a continuation signal for the decline.
• Risk control: if the price strongly breaks through the rebound resistance level and stabilizes, the bearish strategy should be paused.
Overall suggestion:
The current trend is in the second bottom probing stage, with 2046.64 being a key reference point in the near term. It is recommended to wait for a clear structure to appear on the 15-minute or hourly level (such as a double bottom prototype, breakout of a downward channel) before making a decision, and to combine MACD divergence or moving average turning points as auxiliary verification.
1. Bullish entry point (buy on rebound/reversal)
• Ideal low absorption area (left-side layout): 2038 - 2042 area. This is based on the lower bound hypothesis of the oscillation range after a sharp drop. If the price retraces to this area and shows a "long lower shadow" or a "bullish engulfing" candlestick pattern on the 15-minute chart, it can be regarded as an initial stop-loss signal, allowing for a small long position.
• Breakout confirmation point (right-side follow-up): 2055 - 2060 area. This is the upper bound hypothesis of the previous oscillation range. If the price rises sharply and stabilizes above this area, it indicates that the short-term downward trend may be disrupted, serving as a more robust bullish entry signal.
• Long stop-loss: must be set below the ideal low absorption area, such as below 2035. Once it breaks, it indicates that the downward momentum has not diminished.
2. Bearish entry point (short on trend)
• Rebound exhaustion point (main opportunity): 2050 - 2055 area. This is based on the mid-axis pressure hypothesis of the previous oscillation range. If the price rebounds to this level and shows stagnation (such as continuous upper shadows, MACD divergence), and cannot effectively break through, it is an ideal point for a short position.
• Breakout shorting point (secondary opportunity): effectively breaking below 2040. If the price breaks down below the current oscillation platform's lower bound, accompanied by increased trading volume, it can be regarded as a continuation of the downward trend, and shorting can be considered.
• Short stop-loss: must be set above the key resistance level, such as above 2062.
ETHUSDTPerp2,063.39+3.20%