#黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅

From soaring to plummeting: What exactly happened with the recent sharp decline in gold?

Recently, the gold market has experienced a dramatic collapse, setting a record not seen in nearly half a century. The price has dropped from a historical high of $5,600 per ounce to below $4,500, with a weekly decline exceeding 11%, marking 8 consecutive days of decline, creating the largest weekly drop in 43 years since 1983. Gold prices in jewelry stores have been adjusted downward, with brands like Chow Tai Fook seeing prices drop by over 100 yuan per gram, completely invalidating traditional safe-haven logic.

The escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led the market to previously hold an optimistic view on gold, even calling for target prices of $6,000 and $8,000. Now, with the market reversing, experts have collectively remained silent, only explaining it with reasons such as oil-producing countries selling off and rising oil prices pushing up inflation, while avoiding the core issue: the prior increase was too large, and the bubble has burst.

From the end of last year at $4,300 to the high of $5,600, the price surged nearly 30% in just a few months, and gold has long since changed from a safe-haven asset to a high-risk asset. The proportion of investment demand has significantly increased, with many retail investors buying in at high prices, while global central banks have quietly slowed their gold purchases, with the amount bought in January 2026 plummeting over 80%. Institutional actions are much more real than market slogans.

The immediate trigger for this round of decline is the global shift in monetary policy towards a hawkish stance. The Federal Reserve has sent strong signals, drastically cooling interest rate cut expectations, while the European Central Bank and others are tightening liquidity simultaneously, with a stronger dollar directly suppressing non-yielding assets like gold. Combined with high oil prices raising inflation concerns, the logic for gold investment has been completely overturned.

History also proves that geopolitical conflicts are not universally beneficial for gold prices. In the early stages of a conflict, funds tend to prefer the dollar as a safe haven, and coupled with previous speculative positions being crowded, profit-taking occurs after negative news, triggering a market sell-off.

Currently, many institutions believe that the gold bull market is not over, and if the conflict escalates or expectations for interest rate cuts return, there may still be a rebound; however, short-term fluctuations will significantly increase in the next 1-2 months. As the reminder states: don't chase high prices at peak levels; when the risk of the asset itself exceeds its safe-haven value, even the strongest logic cannot prevent a bubble correction.

For ordinary investors, maintaining rationality is the most important. Avoid blindly over-investing in short-term speculation, and it is advisable to control the proportion of gold-related assets to 5%-10%; returning to common sense is the way to avoid major pitfalls in the market.