Trump's statement on March 20 about "gradually ending military operations against Iran" is not a signal for a ceasefire, but rather a guise for intensified attacks by the US and Israel. His willingness to withdraw troops is constrained by multiple factors, and hidden military deployments could lead to a high probability that this conflict will end in a defeat for the US and Israel, triggering profound changes in the global landscape.

1. Three major obstacles to withdrawal: The US cannot afford to lose; a withdrawal would undermine its hegemony in the Middle East and the petrodollar system, and it would allow Islamic forces to unite in attacking Israel. Israel sees the US as a protective shield and will try to bind the US to remain on the battlefield through creating incidents and political pressure; for Israel, this war is a matter of life and death. Trump cannot afford to lose; a failure in war would jeopardize the Republican Party's advantages in the midterm elections and end his political career.

2. The real purpose of the ceasefire statement: Domestically, it is to appease anti-war forces and buy time to create conditions for securing war funding and subsequent military actions; internationally, it is to confuse Iran and its axis of resistance, attempting to make them relax their defenses, paving the way for a surprise attack by the US-Israel coalition, with targets possibly pointing to key islands near the Strait of Hormuz and facilities within Iran.

3. The passive situation of the US and Israel: Trump initially wanted to implement a swift decapitation operation against Iran, but he was dragged into the quagmire of war by Israel, and his compromises towards Israel stem from support from Jewish capital and past apprehensions. Currently, US allies are not providing effective support, and relying solely on its own national strength makes it difficult to sustain a long-term war of attrition against Iran; time is not on the side of the US and Israel.

4. The future trend of the situation: Due to the consumption of war and the differences in national strength and survival logic, the US and Israel will eventually erupt in a dispute over their course of action. When contradictions become irreconcilable, a political "sacrifice" is likely to occur to find a way out for a ceasefire; this conflict will accelerate the global process of "de-unipolarization," with countries pursuing greater strategic autonomy, and the peace development concept advocated by China will gain wider recognition.

5. Current military developments: At the same time as Trump's statement, the US is increasing its military presence in the Middle East, planning actions to seize Iran's oil export lifeline on Khark Island and to "open up" the Strait of Hormuz, and on March 21, it issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, threatening to destroy its power plants. Iran has also launched multiple rounds of strong counterattacks and warned of unprecedented retaliation against the aggressions of the US and Israel. #特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突