Sun

Major news❗❗What will happen to Bitcoin next? Buy the dip or short? #BTC走势分析

First, let's analyze from a macro perspective✅
1️⃣ Major positive news delayed

• The originally expected visit to China in March-April has been postponed by 5-6 weeks, with positive news at least delayed until early May
• This expectation could have eased tariffs and the situation in the Middle East, but the delay directly suppresses bullish sentiment

2️⃣ Realistic expectations for the Middle East war

• Media generally expect a short-term end, but only 7% of funds are betting on an end by the end of March
• The probability of ending before the end of May is less than half, and the probability of ending by the end of the year is only 71%

• The most stable entry point: Trump clearly announces a ceasefire signal, then enter to take advantage of certain upward trends

3️⃣ Federal Reserve and the big trend

• The Federal Reserve continues a hawkish stance, with a 77% probability of no rate cuts in December, and even a slight rate hike is possible

4️⃣ Contrarian sentiment indicators

• Yi Lihua shouting for a rebound at 90,000 at market highs is a typical signal of sentiment peaking
• Historically, many have gone long at highs, cut losses at lows, and then lost again, which can serve as an important contrarian reference

Technical indicators assessment✅

1. Technical analysis
• The daily momentum indicator is approaching a death cross; once formed, the downturn will truly begin
• The structure of this rebound is highly similar to the significant drop in January, and it is easy to see continuous adjustments for more than two weeks after rebounding to the zero axis
• The descending flag pattern is clear, and it is highly likely to eventually break below the previous lows; the MACD death cross is just a matter of time
• Although there is support below, under the continued negative impact of the Middle East war, the probability of holding is continuously decreasing; blind buying is not recommended❗

2. Operational thoughts

• Main strategy: Short on rallies

• Buying the dip must wait for a sufficient correction, only consider entering when a significant negative premium appears

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Summary: Wait for a golden opportunity to emerge → Positive expectations warm up → Then heavily position❗