Today I want to talk about something that few people address directly: $NIGHT has fallen 97% from its historical peak, and this matter deserves serious attention rather than being sidestepped.
From the issuance price of $1.81 to the current $0.044, anyone who entered at the high point has suffered significant losses. I do not intend to defend this matter using "in the long run" or "the project's fundamentals haven't changed," because those words are not persuasive in front of those who have lost 97%.
However, I believe there is one thing worth analyzing separately: of this 97% decline, how much is due to the deterioration of the project's fundamentals, and how much is determined by the supply structure. $NIGHT distributed over 4.5 billion tokens to more than 8 million addresses through Glacier Drop in December 2025, with the average holding cost of these addresses being close to zero, meaning that selling at any price point is profitable for them. Additionally, the mainnet has not yet launched, the DUST mechanism is not operating in reality, and the economic model has not been validated by real-world conditions — the market has given a "pure narrative, zero usage" discount pricing, which is not because the project has failed, but because all data that can support the price has not yet emerged.
The distinction between these two matters determines how you should treat this 97% decline. If the fundamentals have collapsed, then it shouldn't be bought at any price; if it is a temporary pricing discount caused by the lack of supply structure and usage, then it will be re-evaluated once on-chain data appears.
I believe it is the latter. The mainnet goes live this week, and the DUST consumption of @MidnightNetwork can be tracked from that moment. The day that number starts moving from zero, the logic behind the 97% decline will begin to undergo its first real test. (Professional in real life · Life preservation first)
As for the outcome of the test, I do not know. But I believe this is the most worthwhile time window to observe the result of this test. #night
