The price of Bitcoin has been repeatedly fluctuating below 70000 dollars.
Short-term battlefield: the life-and-death line at 68800 dollars
Since this week, the range between 68800 and 69000 dollars has transformed from a former resistance level into an exceptionally solid support platform.
Scenario A: Hold on, then counterattack at 72000
The first level above is the resistance zone between 72000 and 72800 dollars. Once it can effectively break through and stabilize at 72000 dollars, market panic will greatly ease, which can be seen as a strong short-term reversal signal.
Scenario B: Break down, sliding into deeper unknowns
The first support level below is at 67800 dollars, but this may only be a brief respite. A deeper and more critical support zone is between 65000 and 66000 dollars.
The current 'liquidation map' shows that the $69,000 to $70,000 range is the densest area of long and short positions, and the outcome here will directly determine the short-term direction.
At the same time, the Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, has been hovering in the 'extreme fear' range this week. Recent data shows that the index has dipped as low as between 10 and 19, reflecting a pervasive atmosphere of extreme pessimism and uncertainty in the market.
Pointing to a historical coordinate of $43,000?
An indicator recently highlighted by crypto analyst Ali Martinez—the MVRV pricing band—reveals the potential 'historical bottom' that might exist.
The core of MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is to compare Bitcoin's 'market capitalization' and 'realized capitalization'. You can simply understand it as measuring the premium level of the current market price relative to the average holding cost of all holders. When MVRV is less than 1, it means the overall market is in a state of loss.
The key mentioned by Martinez is the 0.8 times range within the MVRV pricing band. This number means that the market price has dropped to 80% of the average cost of all holders. This is an extreme signal that represents the market has experienced brutal deleveraging and capitulation selling, with the vast majority of people deeply trapped.
This is the mathematical code of '43,000 dollars' that we want to discuss. This number is not groundless but is based on the bloody historical patterns of the past decade.
Looking back at history:
In the abyss of the bear market in 2018, Bitcoin's MVRV dropped to 0.69 at one point.
In the epic crash of March 2020, the market also entered the undervalued area of MVRV.
In the winter of 2022, after the FTX collapse, the MVRV value again hit a low of 0.76.
Each time MVRV reaches or falls below the threshold of 0.8, it marks the absolute bottom of a cycle, followed by the start of a grand new bull market.
So, if history repeats itself, what would the price corresponding to 0.8 times MVRV be? To calculate this, we need to know the current 'realized price' (i.e., the average holding cost across the network). Based on recent on-chain data, the current realized price of Bitcoin is approximately around $54,000.
Calculating: $54,500 * 0.8 ≈ $43,600.
The price around $43,000 is the 'potential bear market bottom' indicated by the MVRV pricing band model based on historical patterns. If the market indeed follows scenario B, and historical patterns are validated again, then from the current price, there is still nearly 40% downside potential.
At this point, I believe everyone understands the 'dual narrative' currently facing the Bitcoin market:
Short-term scenario (technical analysis):
A positional battle around $68,800. If defended, look to $72,000; if lost, it tests $65,000. This is a short-term game that tests courage and judgment.
Long-term scenario (on-chain data):
A grand narrative based on the historical cycles of MVRV. If the worst-case scenario occurs, the $43,000 area is a 'golden pit' validated by ten years of history. This is a long-term layout that tests faith and patience.
