Just two days after the washout, many people are already feeling fearful, asking whether the bull market has come to an end?
Although history does not repeat itself exactly, it is always full of striking similarities.
Looking back at historical data, we can see that Bitcoin has reached its peak in each of the past three halving cycles 1 to 1.5 years after each halving. We are currently in a bear market phase.
In this cycle, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy, along with unlimited buying from spot ETFs, suggests that for those who cannot endure just two or three days after the washout, I recommend exiting this circle early; otherwise, future losses will only accumulate more. Each pullback is actually a good opportunity for positioning.
According to the data in the table below, we can see that the first wave cycle increased 88.23 times from the halving day to the peak, the second wave cycle was 30.56 times, and the third wave cycle was 7.87 times. Based on this historical data, we can roughly infer that the increase from halving to peak in this cycle may be around 2.04 times. If the price at the halving in three days is $65,000, then the peak of the next cycle is expected to be around $180,000.
However, this cycle has its particularity, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle. Therefore, I boldly predict that the peak BTC price in the next cycle may be between $180,000 and $200,000, and the peak will occur, based on the historical average (367+523+544)/3=478 days, around August 2028.
For those who truly understand how to seize opportunities, the current pullback is just temporary; the real opportunities are still waiting for us ahead.