Trump Considers Ending the Iran Conflict—What This Signal Means for the Crypto Market
First, let’s clarify the background. On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, leading to Khamenei's death during the airstrikes. Iran retaliated immediately, blocking the Strait of Hormuz temporarily, causing international oil prices to soar above $100. This conflict has now surpassed three weeks, with both sides targeting each other's "vital arteries."
Now Trump is starting to release signals to end the conflict. His advisers are privately pressuring him, worried that persistently high oil prices could trigger a political backlash in the midterm elections in November. Trump's statements have been changing three times a day—he said in the morning that "there are almost no targets to hit," but in the evening, he stated, "victory is still not enough," signaling a slow shift toward a resolution.
Direct Impact on the Market
This conflict has been the single largest variable suppressing risk assets over the past three weeks. High oil prices → rising inflation expectations → making it harder for the Fed to cut rates → tightening liquidity → both crypto and stock markets under pressure. Any market participant has felt this chain of logic.
Once a clear signal for a ceasefire is established, this logic chain will move in the opposite direction: oil prices will fall → inflation pressures will ease → expectations for rate cuts will rise again → risk assets will be repriced. Historically, after every major geopolitical conflict ends, the market's first reaction is to quickly restore suppressed risk appetite.
But it’s not time to celebrate yet
Iran’s stance remains tough; the foreign minister has clearly stated that negotiations are "not on the agenda," and the Revolutionary Guard stated that "when the war ends is up to Iran." Israel's position is even more direct: military actions "have no time limit." Trump's signal is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition.
What is most worth watching now is not whether a ceasefire will come, but when it will come. Each time Trump hints at negotiations, oil prices tend to dip briefly, and market sentiment experiences a short-term rebound. This window presents a short-term opportunity, not a signal for a trend reversal.
A true trend reversal will have to wait until the day the ceasefire agreement is formally signed.