The recent 4-hour chart has formed a double top structure, with two peaks around 70685 and 71367. The price has now broken below the neckline at 69860, which is a key level. From the pattern, the double top breakdown indicates an increasing short-term downside risk. The daily line has seen three consecutive bearish closes, and the highs are continuously descending, from 73909 to 71246 to 69840, a typical bearish descending three methods, indicating that the market focus is consistently shifting downward.
In terms of indicators, the 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines continue to diverge below the zero axis, with the bearish momentum bar expanding to -263. The downward momentum has not weakened, but rather has strengthened. The moving averages are weaker, and the price has broken below all key EMA moving averages, including the 7, 30, and 120-day moving averages. The short-term moving averages have crossed below the long-term moving averages, forming a complete bearish arrangement. The 70500 level on the 4-hour chart is the pressure level near EMA7, and a rebound to this level will face significant resistance. In terms of volume, the 4-hour line on March 20 at 8 PM saw a surge and a sharp decline, with 4716 units traded. Subsequently, the rebound volume shrank from 3080 to 303, a typical pattern of increased volume during a decline and no volume during a rebound, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are inactive. The daily level is even more evident, with declines accompanied by a continuous increase in trading volume, from 16244 to 22365 to 23393, with selling pressure gradually being released, and no signs of buying support entering the market.
Overall, the breakdown of the double top neckline, the daily descending three methods, coupled with the bearish arrangement of moving averages and continuous increase in selling volume, suggests a bearish technical outlook. Unless the price quickly recovers above the 70000 neckline level, the short-term probability is likely to continue testing support downward. See you tomorrow. Follow Mr. Coin for real-time market analysis.
3.21 Bitcoin short-term reference:
70500-71500 range for caution, defend 74500 with a stop loss of 500 points, target below 70000
68300-69300 range for caution, target above 70000, stop loss 500
Sending chapters may have delays, strategy suggestions are for reference only. The market changes rapidly; regardless of how confident you are in market judgment, always manage your take profit and stop loss to secure your gains.