Bitcoin is once again giving investors hope for a larger upward movement, but there is still a long way to go for full confirmation of a bull market. Some on-chain data suggests, however, that the market may be entering the first phase of a rebound.

  • BTC is moving in an increasingly important zone between 72,000 and 82,000 USD.

  • Glassnode indicates that investors are returning to profit, but the threshold for a true bull market has still not been reached

  • In the background, profit-taking is ongoing by short-term players, which may hinder further rallies.

Bitcoin is close to a trend change, but it is still not a bull market

The recent increases in bitcoin have clearly improved market sentiment. After weeks of fear dominance, investors have again started to look at the chart with greater optimism. However, this does not mean that the bear market has been definitively ended.

According to analysts at Glassnode, bitcoin has entered a relatively 'empty' supply zone between 72 thousand and 82 thousand dollars. This is an area where historically fewer coins have been accumulated, so with sufficiently strong demand, the price may move there faster than usual.

An important signal is also given by the supply structure. The share of bitcoins purchased at lower prices has risen to around 60%, which often appeared in the early stages of market recovery. However, Glassnode notes that a truly strong confirmation of a bull market would only be a move above 75%.

The problem is that with the breakout above 74 thousand dollars, short-term investors began to realize profits at a rapid pace. This behavior has historically often limited the dynamics of the rebound and led to subsequent waves of corrections.

If bitcoin manages to maintain support above 70 thousand USD and absorbs selling pressure, the path towards 78–82 thousand dollars will remain open. However, there is still no question of a full-fledged bull market. According to some models, true confirmation of a bull market would require a return above 97 855 USD.

On the other hand, CryptoQuant data still places BTC in the bear zone. Although the indicator improved from -1 to -0.72, there is still a long way to go to level 1, which would signal entry into a bull market.