Investment strategist Tom Lee believes that Ethereum is at a possible cyclical turning point. He voiced his conclusions at the Futu Expo 2026 conference in Hong Kong, relying on historical market analogies and on-chain metrics.
Similarity to major declines in S&P 500
According to him, Bitmine advisor Tom DeMark found a strong resemblance between the current dynamics of ETH and two major corrections in the U.S. stock market: the crash of 1987 and the decline of 2011. He noted that the correlation of Ethereum's behavior with the 1987 model reaches 93%. If the 1987 scenario is a more accurate analogy, ETH may have formed a bottom on March 7. If the 2011 scenario is closer, the market may be in the process of forming a bottom now. In both cases, he draws one conclusion: the market may be coming out of the crypto winter.
Realized price as a market pain point reference
Tom Lee also points out the realized price indicator - the average purchase price of coins based on their last movement in the network. According to him, the current realized price of Ethereum is around $2,241. Historically, at market lows, ETH has traded at a significant discount to this metric: in 2022, the discount reached 39%, and in 2025 it was about 21%, after which the price began to rise. Currently, according to Lee's estimate, the discount is about 22%, meaning the market is in a zone where reversals previously started.
Long-term context
He also reminded that over the last 10 years, Ethereum has grown by approximately 49,000%, which is equivalent to an increase in investments by almost 490 times. In comparison, BTC showed about 11,000% growth over the same period, while Nvidia stocks saw about a 65-fold increase.