It is often said that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. Right now, the gold market is echoing strikingly from the year 1979. But beware: the lesson that most investors have taken away is not the most important.
The Flashback of 79: What we have forgotten
In 1979, the narrative was simple and as "bullish" as possible:
War in Iran → Explosion in oil prices.
Out-of-control inflation → Gold goes parabolic (from $200 to $850).
Market sentiment: Nothing seemed to be able to stop the rise.
The real turning point? It is not the increase, it is the brutal response from the Fed. To stop the bleeding, rates were pushed to 20%. Result: liquidity evaporated instantly. Gold did not correct properly; it capitulated, dropping from $850 to $300. This was not a failure of the asset, but a radical change in the monetary regime.
Why 2026 is starting to "rhyme"
Today, the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place in a worrying way:
Geopolitics: Tensions with Iran are weighing on the markets again.
Energy: Oil is rising aggressively, creating a supply shock.
Inflation: It is seeping back into the system, despite past efforts.
The trap of the "Safe Haven"
This is where many make an analytical mistake. In the crypto ecosystem as elsewhere, it is often thought that gold (or BTC) only reacts to fear. This is false.
Gold reacts primarily to liquidity.
It explodes when central banks are "behind the curve" (behind on inflation). But it collapses as soon as they violently regain control.
The Tipping Point
Here we are. Oil is forcing the hands of institutions. Inflation is becoming impossible to ignore. Consequence? The long-awaited pivot and rate cuts are no longer guaranteed.
The real risk does not arise from panic, but from political tightening. The peak of a cycle does not form when everything is going wrong, but at the precise moment when the liquidity valves close.
History is quietly repeating itself. The question is: will you be able to identify the signal before it's too late?
