Hello everyone, I am Uncle Yan Coin.
I know that recently everyone has seen that the views on Uncle's articles are very low, and I know the reason—because the price of @MidnightNetwork (NIGHT) has collapsed too badly. In January to February, when I shouted about the burning scarcity of Dusk and the RWA profitability of MANTRA, everyone thought I was a value investor; now looking back at that bottomless candlestick chart of NIGHT, you probably think Uncle is a joke.
But today, I don't want to make excuses for the project party; I want to stand on the opposite side of the left-side traders, using the disastrous situation of the mainnet launch in March 2026 as a backdrop to ruthlessly tear apart the so-called 'CapEx (capital expenditure)' economic model of Midnight.
This is not an analysis article; this is a warning letter to all retail investors looking to bottom fish NIGHT.
Fallacy One: The CFO's 'Assetization' Lie
We discussed before that Midnight claims companies can obtain 'free' DUST by purchasing NIGHT (CapEx). But the reality is harsh.
Imagine you are the CFO of a traditional financial institution. At this point in 2026, you watch the value of NIGHT assets on the company's books evaporate by 10% every day, and what you receive in exchange is DUST that 'cannot be traded on the open market'. This is not 'holding assets' on the accounting books; this is called 'holding losses'.
For large funds, compared to saving tens of thousands of dollars in Gas fees (OpEx) each year, they care more about the safety of the principal. When the price of NIGHT falls into a chain collapse, the longer the company holds NIGHT, the uglier the balance sheet becomes. Without liquidity exits, the so-called 'free DUST' is simply poison wrapped in sugar coating; CFOs would rather pay a predictable OpEx to Dusk than recognize bottomless asset depreciation losses in Midnight.
Fallacy Two: The 'Liquidity Black Hole' of DUST
We have complained many times: DUST cannot be traded to prevent institutions from laundering money. Technically, this is clever, but in financial logic, it is a deadlock.
In the world of Web3, assets without liquidity are 'worthless'. If the DUST generated from staking NIGHT can only be burned by yourself, then for pure investors, the staking return (APY) is zero. When the network is thriving, you might console yourself with the 'network usage rights'; but in the market crash and downturn of 2026, those DUST that you can't see, touch, or convert to cash, what difference do they have from air?
Investors' wallets are honest. When you find yourself taking on the risk of a price drop without receiving any liquidity rewards to hedge that risk, your only choice is to: sell off, and then run. This is why the decline of NIGHT seems endless.
Fallacy Three: The Secondary Harvest of 'Outsourced Computing Power'
In the months following the mainnet launch, the uncle also observed a more insidious phenomenon.
Those enterprises that produced a large amount of DUST but do not want to run their own nodes (such as AI privacy inference applications like Oodash) will ultimately have to outsource ZK proof generation to SPOs (Stake Pool Operators). Even though you have DUST as permission for network access, SPOs still need to make a living, and they need to pay for electricity with ADA or other liquid assets.
What does this mean? Under the dual blows of asset depreciation and reward vaporization, NIGHT holders may still have to pull out real money to buy ADA to pay for computing power fees if they really want to use the network. This is not 'CapEx turning into OpEx'; this is 'CapEx plus outsourcing labor'. This layer upon layer of exploitation design is incredibly low in capital efficiency.
Conclusion: Poison or Diamond?
I often say that value investing should look at the improvement of capital efficiency through technology.
I have seen the simple and brutal burning mechanism of Dusk, and I have seen the tangible earning ability of MANTRA. Looking back at Midnight in 2026, if it cannot solve the value transfer issue of DUST through some form of development in the future, or establish a 'computing power market' that does not make pure retail holders bear all the risks of asset depreciation, then the bottomless pit collapse of NIGHT will only become a negative teaching material in the history of Web3 economic model design.
Under the strict regulations of MiCA, compliance privacy is a necessity, but if this necessity requires investors to sacrifice all liquidity and capital safety, then I would rather be a 'coward who doesn't understand technology' than taste this poison called 'DUST' in a bottomless abyss.
Don't let privacy become the graveyard of assets. Before a real liquidity exit is established in NIGHT, bottom fishing may just lead you to 'selectively expose' your life as well.
@MidnightNetwork $NIGHT #night #BearMarket #Tokenomics #DuskNetwork
