The Federal Reserve System of the United States (FRS) decided at its meeting on March 18 to keep the base rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% – 3.75%.
* Reason: The main factor is the war in the Middle East, which has caused a spike in oil prices (Brent approached $100). Jerome Powell stated that the energy shock is creating a new wave of inflation, so now is "not the time for experiments with easing."
* Forecast: The market expected 2-3 rate cuts this year, but the updated 'dot plot' from the Fed now shows only one cut by the end of 2026.
* Market reaction: Stocks and crypto reacted with a modest decline as investors realized that the period of 'expensive money' will last longer than expected.
🇺🇦 NBU: Caution above all
Yesterday, March 19, the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine also decided to keep the discount rate at 15%.
* Why didn't they lower? The head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshnyy, noted that due to global energy prices and logistical difficulties, inflation expectations in Ukraine have risen. The National Bank decided to postpone easing its policy to maintain the stability of the currency market.
* For us: Loans will not become cheaper for now, but deposit rates in hryvnias will remain at the current attractive level.
🇪🇺 Europe (ECB): A similar pause
The European Central Bank also suspended the rate-cutting cycle due to an increase in the inflation forecast for 2026 (to 2.6%).
💡 What does this mean for a crypto trader?
* High for Longer: Global liquidity will remain constrained. This means that 'pumps' across the market are unlikely — capital will only flow into select strong projects (for example, $ROBO from @Fabric Foundation or $NIGHT).
* The dollar is strengthening: The Dollar Index (DXY) has gone up again, which usually puts pressure on the price of Bitcoin.
* Chance for accumulation: As there was no quick turnaround in rates, we have more time to refuel portfolios at current prices before the actual bull run.