Alert: $BTC Before FOMC — The Usual Pattern May Not Apply This Time
$BTC has dropped after 7 of the last 8 Fed meetings.
But current positioning is inverted:
• Funding rates flipped negative — traders are net short after a 5% weekly rally
• Open interest falling — rally is spot-driven, not leverage-fueled
• Coinbase premium positive for most of the past week
In past FOMC events, crowded longs got flushed.
This time, it's the shorts that are exposed.
Scenarios for $BTC :
▪ Hawkish Fed → short-term pressure
▪ Neutral signals → choppy, range-bound
▪ Dovish tone → short squeeze, relief rally
$72.4K is the level to watch post-announcement.