📊 FOMC 19/03/2026 – Fed has not pivoted yet, the market continues to "wait"
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady (11-1), sending a clear signal: it is not time to ease.
🟢 Interest rates & guidance
📉 Dot-plot: 1 cut this year, 1 cut next year
🎯 Target interest rate: 3.4% → 3.1%
👉 Fed enters a state of: "wait & see"
🟢 Inside the Fed
Only Stephen Miran opposes
Higher consensus than expected → Fed faces no pressure to pivot early
🟢 Inflation remains a bottleneck
📊 ~2.7%, PCE ~3%
⛽ Oil prices rise → short-term pressure
👉 No reduction in inflation = no rate cuts
🟢 Economy & employment
📈 GDP ~2.4% → still stable
💼 Labor is “mixed”: layoffs increase but unemployment has not surged
👉 Fed assesses: risks are balanced
🟢 Macro risks
🌍 Middle East + oil prices = significant variable
Two-way impact: both causing inflation and constraining consumption
👉 Not clear enough for Fed to act
🟢 Policy & stance
Fed maintains stance: data-dependent
❌ No forward guidance
❌ Not considered stagflation
Jerome Powell: "Only reacts when the data changes"
⚡️ Quick conclusion
❌ No rate cuts yet
⚠️ Inflation remains high
✅ Economy is not weak
⏳ Fed continues to "remain inactive"
📈 Market impact (Bitcoin):
Short-term neutral → slightly negative due to lack of new capital flows.
👉 Real pivot only starts when Fed actually cuts rates, not expectations.