Geopolitics & Macro: 19 days into the Middle East escalation
The conflict with Iran is still ramping up, draining liquidity from the markets and fueling fresh inflation risks. Here’s the raw breakdown from less than three weeks of escalation — and how it’s hitting the US economy:
💸 Cash burn rate: The military campaign is costing the US about $1B per day, with the total bill already nearing $24B.
🪖 Scale of the operation: Around 50,000 US troops have been deployed to the Middle East, with over 11,500 combat sorties flown so far.
⛽️ Fuel shock: Average gasoline prices in the US are up 40% since December — a direct trigger for future CPI spikes, something the Federal Reserve has been fighting hard to contain.
🛢 Oil dislocation: The price spread between US and Middle East crude has blown out to an extreme 60% gap.
🏛 Political risk: On top of all this, impeachment odds for Donald Trump have surged to a record 72%.
📌 P.S. Donald Trump has officially postponed his planned China visit by one month. The market is reading this loud and clear — no de-escalation expected in the next 30 days. Geopolitical tension and market turbulence aren’t going anywhere.