Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's latest statement indicates that "the economy is expanding," and expects the February PCE inflation to be 2.8% and core PCE to be 3.0%. This signal puts significant pressure on the cryptocurrency market, potentially triggering short-term selling pressure and increased volatility.

PCE is the inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve, and the current forecast (core PCE 3.0%) is still well above the 2% policy target, indicating an increased probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining a "higher for longer" policy path. Market expectations for interest rate cuts will be further suppressed, and the dollar index may strengthen, thereby weakening the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as risk assets.

Powell mentioned that "the situation in the Middle East remains unclear," which adds to geopolitical uncertainty. While geopolitical risks typically favor safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, in the context of high inflation and tightening monetary policy, the safe-haven attributes may be offset by liquidity tightening, leading to a complex market landscape of "ineffective hedging and pressure on risk."

Before the official release of the PCE data, market sentiment will be highly sensitive. If the actual data exceeds expectations (e.g., if core PCE breaks 3.1%), it may trigger a new round of declines in the crypto market; if the data falls below expectations, it may lead to a brief rebound. However, overall, as long as inflation does not significantly decline, the Federal Reserve's policy stance is unlikely to loosen, and cryptocurrencies will continue to face macro pressures.

The current market is in a "data-driven + policy-waiting" phase, and investors are advised to closely monitor the upcoming February PCE data (typically released at the end of the month) and be wary of liquidity contraction risks due to inflation stickiness.